Danny Duffy (2-4, 5.44 ERA) and Ervin Santana (0-0, 0.00 ERA) are on the hill in the last of a four-game series between the Kansas City Royals (45-33) and the Minnesota Twins (43-38) at Kauffman Stadium. The Twins won the last game 5-3 and Minnesota leads the series 2-1. Action begins at 2:10 p.m. ET on Sunday, Jul. 5 and can be seen on FSN-N and FSN-KC.
Duffy is 4-1 with a 2.37 ERA, 1.20 WHIP, and 37 strikeouts against the Twins. Lorenzo Cain (.309, 47 Rs, 6 HRs, 36 RBIs, 16 SBs) had another good game yesterday, going 2 for 3 with two RBIs. Santana is 5-6 with a 5.00 ERA against the Royals in his career. He takes on a quality Kansas City offense that’s batting .269. Brian Dozier (.259, 62 Rs, 16 HRs, 40 RBIs, 7 SBs) went 1 for 5 yesterday with one run.
Kansas City is a -138 favorite against Minnesota and the Over/Under (O/U) for this game is sitting at eight runs. The Royals have recorded an overall money line of +1,156 and have shown high-level performance as a favorite this season with a record of 25-16. Kansas City has had an impressive season against division opponents, earning 12-7 and 20-13 records as the favorite and SU respectively. The Royals have seen a decline in scoring as of late, averaging 3.0 runs during the last 10 games compared to their season average of 4.2 runs per game. The Royals are one of the best in the AL in terms of hits with an impressive 9.2 per game. Kansas City strikes out the least of any team in the AL, with only 5.9 per game. Opposing batters know they’re in for a battle when they play Kansas City. The Royals are the top team when it comes to pitching, allowing a league-low 3.3 runs per home game. The Royals are the fifth-best team in the AL at limiting hits during home games, allowing only 8.0 hits per game to their opponents this season.
In games where it is the underdog, Minnesota has a 35-31 record and an overall money line of +1,196. They are 16-17 as the underdog against teams in their division, and 19-20 SU. When it comes to issuing walks, the Twins have the fewest in the AL with only 2.4 walks allowed per game.
The Royals lead the season series, 7-5. The Royals have a great 16-9 record at home (32-19 overall) against right-handed starting pitchers, which is what they’ll be facing when Santana takes the mound. Duffy (LHP) will be on the hill against the Twins, who have a very good 18-10 record against left-handed starting pitchers.
Predictions: SU Winner – KC, O/U – Over
Notes
Minnesota has won 45% (13-16) of its games when leading after 7 innings. However, Kansas City has won 63% (19-11) of its games when taking a late lead.
The Royals are coming into this game after allowing one walk during their last outing. The Twins have a 10-21 record when opponents give up that many walks or fewer.
When they are outhit, the Royals are 3-27. The Twins have a 7-35 record when opponents outhit them.
Kansas City and Minnesota both rank near the bottom of the league in home runs. Kansas City sits at 28th with 57 home runs this season and Minnesota ranks 23rd with 65.
Ranking 10th, Minnesota is in the top 10 of the league in hits, notching 8.35 per game. Kansas City ranks in the top five at second with 9.16.
Ranking 20th, Minnesota is in the bottom half of the league for its on-base plus slugging percentage (.693). Kansas City ranks in the top half at 12th with an OPS of .719.
The Twins are 23-26 when they allow at least one home run. The Royals perform similarly when they allow one or more homers with an 18-24 record.
