What can we expect from LeSean McCoy as he goes from the high octane offense of the Philadelphia Eagles to the ground-and-pound offense of Rex Ryan and the Buffalo Bills? Let’s take a look at the fantasy outlook for McCoy with the Bills in 2015.
Was Last year a Sign of Things to Come?
The question you have to ask if you are going to take LeSean McCoy in your fantasy football draft is whether or not 2014 was a sign of things to come for McCoy. He averaged 4.2 yards per carry which is not too bad but a major concern is that he averaged just 2.6 yards per carry after contact. And that number was one of the worst in the NFL a year ago.
McCoy was in a great offense in Philadelphia that gave him a lot of chances to run and catch the ball. He now goes to an offense that was poor last season and may not be much better in 2015.
Buffalo Bills Offense under Ryan
The main positive for McCoy in going from Philadelphia to Buffalo is head coach Rex Ryan. We know that Buffalo is going to run the ball a lot with Ryan because that is what he does. When he coached the New York Jets his teams were in the top six in rushing attempts in each of the last three seasons. Even though Buffalo still has Fred Jackson and Bryce Brown, the Bills are going to give McCoy the ball a lot. And despite his size, McCoy has been a durable running back in his career. He has played in every game the past two years and in 90 of a possible 96 career regular season games.
The only concern for McCoy in terms of playing time is that he won’t get all of the third down snaps. Last season McCoy was used in just 41 percent of the third down plays for Philadelphia and he may get even less use with Buffalo. The Bills have Fred Jackson who took 72% of the third down snaps with four yards or more to go. Jackson is simply the best back to pick up the blitz on third downs.
“We’re deep in the backfield, with Boobie Dixon and Fred Jackson,” head coach Ryan said, “Obviously, we’re deep. They’ll all play, there’s no question about it. Specific roles, is [Jackson] always going to be a third-down back? No. When you have a talent like Fred Jackson back there, that’ll be part of his role. He won’t always be the third-down back. LeSean will be a third-down back as well. But it’s nice to have these kind of options.”
LeSean McCoy is currently projected to be a late first round pick in most 2015 Fantasy football drafts.
McCoy’s Recent Numbers
2009: 637 yards and 4 TDs rushing, 40 catches and zero TDs receiving
2010: 1,080 yards and 7 TDs rushing, 78 catches and 2 TDs receiving
2011: 1,309 yards and 17 TDs rushing, 48 catches and 3 TDs receiving
2012: 840 yards and 2 TDs rushing, 54 catches and 3 TDs receiving
2013: 1,607 yards and 9 TDs rushing, 52 catches and 2 TDs receiving
2014: 1,319 yards and 5 TDs rushing, 28 catches and zero TDs receiving
