Sean Payton and the New Orleans Saints earned a measure of revenge in a lopsided 49-21 win over the Los Angeles Rams and their defensive coordinator Greg Williams last week. Now the Saints will turn their attention to a much tougher opponent with the Detroit Lions in town this weekend.
Moneyline: NO -250
Handicap/Spread Odds: NO -5.5
Total O/U: 53.5
Last 5 Meetings: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 12/21/15 | DET 35 – NO 27 | DET 2.5 | O 52 |
| 10/19/14 | NO 23 – DET 24 | NO 1.5 | O 46.5 |
| 01/07/12 | DET 28 – NO 45 | NO –10.5 | O 59.5 |
| 12/04/11 | DET 17 – NO 31 | NO -9 | U 55 |
| 09/13/09 | DET 27 – NO 45 | NO -14 | O 50 |
On the Lions Side of the Ball: (7-4 Record, 7-4 ATS)
Detroit has won three in a row to take over top spot in the NFC North with five games to go and it’s obvious that consistency will be the key to their success the rest of the way as they look to lock up a division title. Matt Stafford threw for just 232 yards and a touchdown in last week’s 16-13 win over the Minnesota Vikings but more importantly he didn’t make any mistakes and the Lions defense shut the door on Sam Bradford and company. Stafford and company could open things up a little more against the Saints defense but they need to make sure that they don’t turn the ball over. Meanwhile, the Detroit defense will have its hands full trying to contain Drew Brees with three of their next four games on the road against tough quarterbacks including Eli Manning and Dak Prescott.
Last 5 Results: (Road/Home – Spread/Total)
| 11/24/16 | MIN | W 16-13 | W -1.5 | U 42 |
| 11/20/16 | JAC | W 26-19 | W -5.5 | U 47 |
| 11/06/16 | @ MIN | W 22-16 | W 4.5 | U 42.5 |
| 10/30/16 | @ HOU | L 13-20 | L 1 | U 46.5 |
| 10/23/16 | WAS | W 20-17 | W 1 | U 50 |
On the Saints Side of the Ball: (5-6 Record, 8-3 ATS)
The Saints remained in the hunt for the NFC South title with a lopsided win over the Rams in which they clearly didn’t mind running up the score. The win marked Williams’ first game back in New Orleans since the Bountygate scandal so it should have been no surprise when Payton was calling for trick plays that led to touchdowns when New Orleans was already up by 21 points. Now the Saints will need to refocus with a touch stretch coming up in which they will play three of their final four games on the road following this week’s matchup with Detroit. Brees will need to be at his best for New Orleans to win this game but they will also need their defense to step up and keep Stafford and the Lions’ offense from putting up big numbers.
Last 5 Results:
| 11/27/16 | LA | W 49-21 | W -8 | O 45 |
| 11/17/16 | @ CAR | L 20-23 | W 3.5 | U 52.5 |
| 11/13/16 | DEN | L 23-25 | L -3 | U 50 |
| 11/06/16 | @ SF | W 41-23 | W -5 | O 53 |
| 10/30/16 | SEA | W 25-20 | W 1 | U 50 |
Quick Analysis
The Lions have covered in each of their last three games and should be well rested after playing in the Thanksgiving game on Thursday. Meanwhile, the Saints showed signs of life with a big win over Los Angeles after covering against the Panthers so it could be a sign they are close to turning a corner. These teams combined for 62 points when they clashed a year ago with Detroit taking the 35-27 win.
Prediction
The Saints were small favorites in last year’s loss and considering they are giving up 4.5 points on the line for this game, we would be hesitant betting on New Orleans. However, the Lions have had an extra three days off to rest and prepare for this matchup and New Orleans could be due for a small regression following last week’s big win. At the same time, the home-away splits could be quite relevant in this spot. The Saints are just 3-2 at home this season but their losses were to the NFC South-leading Atlanta Falcons as well as the Denver Broncos (on a miraculous play). On the flip side, Detroit has been tough to trust on the road. They lost 20-13 at Houston, 17-14 at Chicago and 34-27 at Green Bay. Those aren’t exactly the best teams in the NFL. Yes, the Lions have won three straight and six of seven, but five of those seven games were at home.
Look for the Saints air show to continue this week against one of the weakest secondaries in the NFL. This will be a high-scoring affair but the Saints will win and cover.
Pick: Saints -4.5
Note: Lines subject to change leading up to kick-off, so please be aware of the possibility of line movements.
