Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints – Free Week 20 Betting Pick

Chuck Cook-USA TODAY Sports

The Los Angeles Rams are dogs to the New Orleans Saints in the National Football Conference Championship Game. This afternoon game gets underway at 3:05 p.m. ET and fans can catch it live by tuning in to FOX.

Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints Betting Preview

In this Sunday NFC matchup, New Orleans is tabbed as the favorite and is currently giving up 4 points. The Rams are also receiving +140 moneyline odds while the Saints are -160. Oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 57 points. Should New Orleans gives up points early, it’ll likely produce a worthwhile live betting opportunity.

Odds have moved some from where they originally opened. The opening line was -3 while the game’s total was placed initially at 56.5.

Both of these teams have been profitable this year as the Rams have gained 2.4 units while the Saints are ahead 3.9 units.

The Rams are 14-3 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Saints are also 14-3 SU.

When these two squads faced one another a year ago, Los Angeles won by two field goals 26-20.

The Rams continue to ride high after a 30-22 victory over Dallas in Week 19 where Jared Goff completed only 15-of-28 passes for 186 yards. C.J. Anderson (123 yards on 23 rushes, two TDs) and Todd Gurley II (115 yards on 16 carries, one TD) led the ground attack while Robert Woods (six receptions, 69 yards) and Brandin Cooks (four catches, 65 yards) manned the receiving duties in the win.

New Orleans just got a 20-14 win over Philadelphia a week ago. The Saints defense did its duty in the victory, holding the Eagles to only 201 passing yards and 49 yards on the ground. Alshon Jeffery had a productive showing in the loss, recording 63 yards on five catches for Philadelphia. For New Orleans, Drew Brees completed 28-of-38 passes for 301 yards, two touchdowns and one interception. Alvin Kamara (71 rushing yards on 16 attempts) and Mark Ingram (53 yards on nine carries) handled the running game while Michael Thomas (12 receptions, 171 yards, one TD) and Kamara (four catches, 35 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

When analyzing offensive play-calling, each of these teams sports a similar run-pass ratio on the season. Los Angeles has run the ball on 46.0 percent of its offensive possessions while New Orleans has an overall rush percentage of 47.4. The Rams have rushed for 147 yards per game and have 26 scores on the ground this year. The Saints are logging 127 rushing yards per game and have 26 total rush TDs.

The Rams offensive scheme has logged 289 yards per game in the air overall and has 32 passing TDs so far. The Saints have produced 263 pass yards per game and have 35 total pass scores.

Defensively, Los Angeles seems to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 118 rush yards and 257 pass yards per game. The New Orleans D has allowed 283.8 yards per game to opposing passers and 78.4 yards per game to opposing runners. The Rams are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 6.37 to opposing QBs, while the Saints have allowed a 6.88 ANY/A.

Offensively, Goff has already amassed 4,675 passing yards this year. He’s completed 65 percent of his 563 attempts with 28 scores through the air and 12 interceptions. Goff’s got a 7.50 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 8.61 over the last two outings.

Drew Brees has completed 392-of-527 passes for 4,293 yards, 34 TDs and six INTs for New Orleans. His ANY/A stands at 8.36 for the season and 6.95 across his last two outings.

Free NFL Tip: Los Angeles Rams at New Orleans Saints

SU Winner – Saints, ATS Winner – Rams, O/U – Under


Team Betting Notes

The O/U for Los Angeles’ last game was 48. The over cashed in the team’s 30-22 win over Dallas.

Los Angeles has averaged 5.3 yards per rush attempt across its last three outings and 4.8 over its last two.

New Orleans has averaged 4.9 yards per carry over its last three contests and 5.5 over its last two.

New Orleans has lost nine fumbles this season while Los Angeles has lost seven.

In its last three games, Los Angeles is 3-0 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

The Over/Under for New Orleans’ previous match was set at 52. The under cashed in that 20-14 win over Philadelphia.

Over its last three contests, New Orleans is 0-3 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.

New Orleans has won five of its last six games SU, with a -19-point loss to Carolina on December 30th representing the lone defeat over that stretch.

The Rams offense has tallied nine pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Saints have accounted for six such plays.

The Los Angeles defense has allowed 11 pass plays of 40+ yards, while New Orleans has given up 14 such plays.

The Los Angeles offense has created 15 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while New Orleans has created nine such runs.

The Rams defense has allowed 16 rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Saints have given up six such runs.

The New Orleans defense has sacked opposing quarterbacks 49 times this season. Los Angeles has registered just 42 sacks.


Written by GMS Previews

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