According to Elias Sports Bureau data cited by ESPN, Memorial Day is the conventional moment for fans to consult the MLB standings: 59% of teams (102 of 172) that held sole possession of first place on the morning of June 1 have gone on to win their division in the wild-card era (since 1995, excluding 2020). ESPN assembled its MLB experts — Jesse Rogers, Bradford Doolittle, Buster Olney, Jeff Passan, Alden Gonzalez and David Schoenfield — to assess what stands out in the standings so far.
Buster Olney told ESPN that the American League’s uneven start has left several clubs within reach despite poor records. Olney called the AL’s overall play disappointing and pointed to Detroit, Boston, Baltimore and Kansas City among teams off to tough beginnings. He noted Baltimore remains in contention, sitting 2½ games out in the race for the third wild card, a position Chris Bassitt recently summarized for his club.
Jeff Passan highlighted an unusual payroll pattern to ESPN: the 10 best teams by record combine to spend about $1.89 billion on players while the 10 worst teams spend roughly $1.90 billion. Passan noted three top-10 teams — the Tampa Bay Rays, St. Louis Cardinals and Cleveland Guardians — carry sub-$100 million payrolls, while only the Miami Marlins appear among the bottom 10 at that level. He added five teams in the top 10 exceed $200 million in payroll compared with three in the bottom 10, and that trimming that threshold slightly would add the Red Sox and San Francisco Giants to a list with the Mets, Astros and Tigers among underachievers.
David Schoenfield pointed to the Rays’ turnaround. After a 12-11 start through April 21, Tampa Bay went 22-5, allowing what Schoenfield described as just 679 runs across those 27 games and surrendering two or fewer runs 17 times, creating a comfortable division lead over the New York Yankees.
Passan named the Detroit Tigers the season’s biggest disappointment to ESPN. Detroit entered as an AL Central favorite after retaining Tarik Skubal, signing Framber Valdez, and promoting Kevin McGonigle with a long-term extension. The Tigers were 18-17 on May 3; Skubal’s elbow surgery was announced the next day and, three weeks later, the club sat 21-33. Passan noted Skubal is expected back sooner than initially thought thanks to a new procedure, and while Detroit remains in the division, the hole in the standings has become significant and raises questions about the club’s path forward.
