The Denver Nuggets (21-20) meet the Memphis Grizzlies (13-27) at Pepsi Center. The game starts at 9 p.m. ET on Friday, January 12, 2018, and will air on Fox Sports – Southeast.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 207.5 points with Denver opening as a 7.5-point favorite.
Memphis Grizzlies vs. Denver Nuggets Free Prediction
The Grizzlies come in on a high note after just getting past the New Orleans Pelicans in their last outing, 105-102. Memphis out-rebounded New Orleans. The Grizzlies had more offensive rebounds (14 vs. nine), defensive rebounds (36 vs. 31) and total rebounds (50 vs. 40). Memphis rallied around Marc Gasol, who contributed 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists.
The last time the Nuggets played, they were beaten by the Atlanta Hawks, 110-97. Converting at the free throw line was one of Atlanta’s largest strengths. They were 18-18 (100.0 percent), while the Nuggets were just 12-20 (60.0 percent). Gary Harris put together a good performance for Denver, leading both teams in scoring with 25 points on 11-for-14 shooting.
The offensive glass could be a huge edge for Denver in this meeting. The Nuggets rank second in offensive rebounding percentage (26.5 percent), while Memphis ranks 24th in defensive rebounding percentage (76.4 percent).
Memphis comes into the game with records of 13-27 straight up (SU) and 15-23-2 against the spread (ATS). Of the Grizzlies’ 40 games, 25 have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Denver is 21-20 SU and 19-20-2 ATS. Much like Memphis, Nuggets games also have typically gone under the total (56.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Tyreke Evans (24.8 points, 6.8 assists, 5.4 rebounds and 1.2 steals) has been fantastic for the Grizzlies while Trey Lyles (19.6 points, 8.0 rebounds and 1.2 steals) has contributed greatly to the Nuggets.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Nikola Jokic scored a game-high 28 points and the Nuggets defeated the Grizzlies 104-92, covering as 6-point favorites. He also had 13 rebounds and eight assists. The game finished with a total of 196 points, which was 14 points below the projected point total of 210 points. The Nuggets had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (42.9 vs. 7.9) and had a better free throw rate (0.190 vs. 0.151).
Memphis Grizzlies at Denver Nuggets ATS Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Nuggets, ATS Winner – Nuggets, O/U – Under
On the road, Memphis is 8-10-1 ATS with 9 overs, 9 unders and 1 push.
Denver is 11-8 ATS at home with 11 unders and 8 overs.
When holding opponents below 100 points, Denver is 11-2 and Memphis is 9-8.
In games where they reach 100 points, the Nuggets are 17-12 and the Grizzlies are 8-9.
Denver ranks fifth in rebounds per game (45.1) while Memphis ranks 29th (40.0).
The Nuggets rank fourth in assists per game (23.8) while the Grizzlies rank 28th (20.7).
Denver ranks first in second chance points per game (15.0) while Memphis ranks 24th (10.5).
The Grizzlies rank third in steals allowed per game (6.8) while the Nuggets rank 24th (8.3).
Memphis ranks first in points allowed in the paint per game (40.1) while Denver ranks 22nd (46.0).
The Grizzlies rank eighth in points off turnovers allowed per game (15.1) while the Nuggets rank 27th (19.2).
Denver ranks seventh in fast break points per game (13.8) while Memphis ranks 25th in fast break points allowed per game (13.3).
The Grizzlies rank fourth in blocks per game (5.3) while the Nuggets rank 16th (4.7).
Denver averages 30.5 three pointers per game, which ranks eighth in the league. Memphis ranks 11th in three pointers allowed per game (27.6).
In their last five games, Memphis is 4-1 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Denver is 2-2-1 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Grizzlies’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 0.4, down from 3.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Nuggets have scored an average of 108.4 points per game (1.1 above their season average) and allowed an average of 108.4 points per game (2.3 above their season average).
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