This past Saturday in California, the all submission METAMORIS 4 Grappling event took place, and if you were smart about playing the odds, there was definitely opportunity. The big payoff was UFC Heavyweight Josh Barnett, who finished Dean Lister with a scarf choke. He closed at roughly (+720) which means a $100 bet returned $720.
The event was dominated by the presence of Chael Sonnen, who did compete a grappling match against Andre Galvao despite the Nevada State Athletic Commission’s attempts to block him from competing. Galvao finished Sonnen with a rear naked choke, as expected. Galvao was a massive (-1497) favorite, meaning to win $100 on a bet, you had to risk about $1500.
If you want a simple strategy to bet these events, just bet the draw. The rules lend themselves to stalemates and draws, and over the course of 4 solid events, Metamoris has had tons of draws. This event was no different, as Jeff Glover and Baret Yoshida went the full twenty minutes, as did Rodrigo ‘Cumprido’ Medeiros and Saulo Ribeiro as well as Keenan Cornelius and Vinny Magalhaes. The Barnett-Lister match was in the final 15 seconds of the fight when the finish came, so a draw was narrowly averted in that one.
The Metamoris promotion will wait and see if all the added attention it got due to the participation of Sonnen turned tickets. The group did well for Metamoris 3, which was headlined by the Eddie Bravo vs Royler Gracie re-match. Oh, by the way, that one ended in a draw too.
The only book on the internet taking bets on Jiu Jitsu, Grappling and Submission events is BETDSI.COM. They have been talking action on these type of events fro more than a year now, and it would seem they haven’t been getting killed with bettors who are in the know. Once true professional gamblers get involved in the sport, the lines will have to be a lot sharper, as right now there really are opportunities to find a line that you can bite on.
Barnett was a good example of this. Anyone in the know understands that Barnett came up onto the world scene in the late 90’s as part of trainer Matt Hume’s ADCC Submission Wrestling Team. He has been around this game for a long time, and with his size advantage, a submission was always a very strong possibility. I bet the draw however 😉
