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Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals – Week 5 Betting Pick

Dale Zanine-USA TODAY Sports

The Miami Dolphins (+6) are making a trip north to face the Cincinnati Bengals at Paul Brown Stadium. This crucial early afternoon game is scheduled to kick off at 1:00 p.m. ET and CBS will broadcast the action.

Miami Dolphins at Cincinnati Bengals Betting Preview

Miami is projected to play the role of underdog and is currently getting 6 points in this AFC game. The Dolphins are also receiving +190 moneyline odds while the Bengals are -230. Some good live betting possibilities should exist during this game, and oddsmakers have placed the over/under (O/U) at 50.5 points.

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The betting odds have shifted slightly from where they first opened. The line opened at -6 and the game’s total was set initially at 50.

Each team has rewarded gamblers this year as both the Dolphins and the Bengals are up exactly 2.3 units so far.

The Dolphins have gone 3-1 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Bengals are also 3-1 SU.

The Dolphins hope to get back on track after a 38-7 loss to New England in Week 4Their defense allowed the Patriots to eat up the clock by rushing for 175 yards on 40 attempts, including two rush TDs. James White logged a productive day for the Patriots in that one with 44 rushing yards and a score on eight attempts, along with 68 yards and a score on eight catches. On the offensive side, the Dolphins completed 15-of-25 passes for 135 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Ryan Tannehill went 11-for-20 for 100 yards and one interception while Brock Osweiler completed four-of-five for 35 yards and one touchdown. Frank Gore (41 yards on 11 rushes) led the running attack in the loss while Albert Wilson (four receptions, 19 yards) and Kenny Stills (three catches, 40 yards) manned the receiving duties.

The Cincinnati Bengals just got a 37-36 win over Atlanta in Week 4. The team’s defensive secondary let the Falcons air it out for 419 yards and three touchdowns. Julio Jones had a good showing in the loss for Atlanta, posting 173 yards and a score on nine catches. For Cincinnati, Andy Dalton completed 29-of-41 passes for 337 yards, three touchdowns and one interception. Giovani Bernard (69 yards on 15 rush attempts, two TDs) spearheaded the ground game in the win while Tyler Boyd (11 receptions, 100 yards) and A.J. Green (four catches, 78 yards, one TD) led the pass-catching attack.

Miami has run the ball on 47.9 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Cincinnati has an overall rush percentage of 34.9 percent. The Dolphins have produced 88 rush yards/game and have only one score via handoffs this year. The Bengals are logging 94 rushing yards per game and have four total rush TDs.

It appears that the Bengals should hold an advantage along both the offensive and defensive fronts. Their offensive line has allowed only seven sacks while the D-line has logged 10 sacks. The Dolphins offensive line has given up eight sacks and their defense has sacked opposing signal-callerss on just six occasions.

The Dolphins offensive scheme has tallied 219 yards per game through the air overall and has nine passing TD so far. The Bengals have put up 299 pass yards per outing and have 11 total pass scores.

Defensively, Miami appears to have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 111 rush yards and 293 pass yards per game. The Cincinnati defense has given up 316.0 yards per game to opposing passers and 115.8 yards per game to opposing runners. The Dolphins are allowing an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of just 5.25 to opposing QBs, while the Bengals have given up a 6.96 ANY/A.

Passing-wise, Tannehill has put up 498 yards on the year. The signal-caller has connected on 48-of-71 attempts with four passing scores and three interceptions. He has a 4.74 adjusted net yards per pass attempt overall, although that number is 8.17 over the last two outings.

Expect Tannehill to distribute the football early and often in this one. Kenny Stills (82 receiving yards and two touchdowns), Albert Wilson (87 yards, one TD) and Jakeem Grant (82 yards) have all been heavily involved recently.

Andy Dalton has connected on 74-of-111 passes for 845 yards, nine TDs and two INTs for Cincinnati. His ANY/A sits at 7.69 for the season and 5.58 over his past two games.

Tyler Boyd (217 receiving yards, one receiving touchdown on the year), Giovani Bernard (94 rush yards, two rush TDs, 53 receiving yards) and A.J. Green (239 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) have all played significant roles lately. The trio has combined to account for 555 yards from scrimmage and five touchdowns over the past two games.

Free NFL Tip: Dolphins at Bengals

SU Winner – Bengals, ATS Winner – Dolphins, O/U – Over

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Notes

Betting Notes

Miami was favored by 7 points in its previous game and the O/U was 50.5. The under cashed and Miami failed to cover in the 38-7 defeat to New England.

Miami has averaged 3.68253968253968 yards per carry over its last three games and 3.0 over its last two.

Cincinnati has averaged 4.3 yards per carry over its last three contests and 4.6 over its last two.

Cincinnati has lost one fumble this season while Miami has let three get away.

In its last three games, Miami is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in two of those three.

Cincinnati was favored by 3 points in its last game and the Over/Under was set at 52. The over cashed and Cincinnati failed to cover in the 37-36 victory over Atlanta.

In its last three games, Cincinnati is 2-1 ATS and the over cashed in each of those three.

The Dolphins offense has tallied three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Bengals have accounted for one such play.

The Miami defense has allowed four pass plays of 40+ yards, while Cincinnati has given up two such plays.

The Miami offense has created three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Cincinnati has created four such run.

The Dolphins defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while the Bengals have given up one such run.

The Cincinnati defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks 10 times this season. Miami has produced six sacks.

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Written by GMS Previews

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