Thursday, April 26, 2018
Mandatory Credit: Nick Turchiaro-USA TODAY Sports

Miami Marlins at New York Yankees Betting Preview 04/16/18

The Miami Marlins are heading north to play the New York Yankees at Yankee Stadium. This interleague matchup will get underway at 6:35 p.m. ET and Fox SportsNet Florida will broadcast the game.

Miami Marlins at New York Yankees Odds

New York (-350) is the favorite over Miami (+275) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this game at eight runs (-120 for the over and +100 for the under). Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the runline odds sitting at +140 for the Marlins +1.5 runs and -160 for the Yankees -1.5.

The Yankees are 7-7 SU and 7-7 ATS. They’ve lost 2.8 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 2.1 units against the spread (ATS). New York has a 3-4 ATS mark over its last seven games and the total has gone over in six of those seven. The Marlins have gone 4-11 SU this year and are 5-9 ATS. Overall, the team’s lost 3.3 units for moneyline bettors in the season’s early going and 5.2 units ATS. Miami is 3-4 ATS over its last seven games and the over has cashed in four of those seven.

New York games have an over/under record of 9-4-1 so far in 2018. Miami has an over/under record of 7-7.

The Marlins have lost 2.1 units and are 4-6 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has hit in five of those games, as opposed to five that’ve gone under against lefties. On the other hand, the Yankees have netted 2.0 units and are 3-1 ATS when facing a left-handed starting pitcher. The over’s hit in three of those games, compared to one that’ve cashed the under.

Left-hander Caleb Smith (0-1, 4.72 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Marlins. Smith struck out 18 hitters across 18 innings last year (with 10 walks) while finishing the season 0-1 overall with a 7.71 ERA and a 1.66 WHIP.

The Bronx Bombers are putting the ball in the hands of righty Luis Severino (2-1, 3.50 ERA), who struck out 230 hitters in 193 innings last year with only 51 walks. Severino finished the season 14-6 overall with a 2.98 ERA and a 1.04 WHIP.

New York’s pitching staff has given up 5.5 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 4.83, a WHIP of 1.35 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 8.9. The bullpen has a 4.71 ERA, 1.22 WHIP and 13.3 K/9.

The New York hitters have produced 5.5 runs per outing, including 6.0 per game over its last 10 games and 5.8 per game over their last five. The team’s hit .276/.347/.432 over its last five contests and is 2-3 SU during that span.

Right fielder Aaron Judge and shortstop Didi Gregorius have led the Yankees’ hitters this year. Judge is hitting .340/.470/.566 with 18 hits, nine RBIs and 13 runs scored, and Gregorius has put up a line of .311/.433/.689 with 14 hits, 13 RBIs and 11 runs scored.

Compared to his overall season slash line of .284/.422/.627, Judge didn’t perform very well against left-handed pitchers last year, slashing .230/.439/.496 over 155 plate appearances.

For the visitors, Miami’s pitching staff allowed 5.6 runs per game and its starting pitchers own a 5.14 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 7.53 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 4.71, along with a WHIP of 1.42 and a K-per-9 of 9.30.

The Marlins offense has slashed .227/.300/.309 on its way to 3.3 runs scored per game this year, including 2.8 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 3.4 per game over the team’s last five outings (1-4 SU).

Miami’s hitters have been led by third baseman Brian Anderson and shortstop Miguel Rojas. Anderson is slashing .268/.388/.393 with 15 hits, 10 RBIs and eight runs scored, while Rojas (.288/.344/.424) is up to 17 hits, two homers, four RBIs and six runs scored.

Rojas didn’t perform especially well against righty pitching on the road last year. Over 122 such plate appearances, he maintained a slash line of .250/.328/.306 (his total season line was .290/.361/.375).

Miami Marlins vs. New York Yankees Free Pick

Predictions: SU Winner – Yankees, ATS Winner – Marlins, O/U – OVER

Notes

Betting Trends

The Marlins have lost five of their last six games SU.

New York has posted 24.6 Runs + Hits + Errors per game over its last 10 games and 27.0 over its last five.

The Marlins have hit six home runs in their last 10 games, including five over their last five.

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