A conference championship is on the line when the Northern Illinois Huskies (10-2) take on the Bowling Green Falcons (7-5) Friday in the Mid-American Championship Game. With losses in three of their last five, Bowling Green comes into this game looking to rekindle a season that has lost its spark. The game will begin Friday at 7:00 p.m. ET and can be seen on ESPN 2.
In its last game, Bowling Green was defeated by Ball State 41-24. Travis Greene had an outstanding performance, putting up 167 total yards and a TD. He gained most of his yards on the ground, registering 159 yards and a score. Fred Coppet had a great game as well, adding 140 yards and a TD on 16 attempts. Northern Illinois beat Western Michigan 31-21 in last week’s game. Aregeros Turner had a solid game for the Huskies, totaling two receptions for 70 yards and one TD. Joel Bouagnon put up 70 yards on six carries.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the Falcons-Huskies game this week is set at 59 points and Northern Illinois is a small two-point favorite. Sitting at 7-5 Straight Up (SU) and 4-7-1 Against The Spread (ATS), the Falcons will look to improve as they head into Week 15. In their five most recent matchups, the Falcons went 2-3 SU and 1-3-1 ATS. The Falcons love to throw the ball. Their 40.1 passing attempts per game are 17th-highest in the country. The Huskies are matching up with Bowling Green’s defense at an inopportune time. Bowling Green usually allows 32.5 points per game, but over the last five that number has fallen to 24. In those five games, the Falcons pass defense was a no fly zone, only allowing an average of 225.0 passing YPG to opponents. The Falcons make it hard on their opponents right from the first whistle, averaging 9.1 points in the first 15 minutes.
On the other side, the Huskies have a record of 6-6 ATS and 10-2 SU. The Huskies went 5-0 SU and 3-2 ATS over the last five games. If earlier games are any indication, the Huskies will pound the rock on offense. They average 246.2 rushing yards per game, good enough for 18th in Division I. The Huskies defense has trended upward in the past five games. They lowered their points allowed per game to 24.2 by giving up an average of 19 points during that five-game span. The Northern Illinois pass defense has turned the corner during the past five games. During that span, its allowed 180.8 passing yards per game, dropping its season average to 229.6. The Falcons need to recognize the importance of securing the ball against the turnover-minded Huskies. The defense ranks 21st in the country in turnovers with 2.3 per road game. Bowling Green needs to keep its intensity through the fourth quarter against the Huskies, who average 12.3 points in the final 15 minutes of regulation during road games.
Predictions: SU Winner – NIU, ATS Winner – NIU, O/U – Over
Notes
The total has gone UNDER in 5 of Northern Illinois’s last 5 games.
Bowling Green is 1-3-1 ATS in its last 5 games.
Northern Illinois is 5-0 SU in its last 5 games.
Bowling Green is 12-6 SU in its last 18 games.
Northern Illinois is 3-6 ATS in its last 9 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Bowling Green’s last 7 games.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Northern Illinois’s last 6 games when playing Bowling Green.
Bowling Green is 2-4 SU in its last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois is 4-2 SU in its last 6 games when playing Bowling Green.
The total has gone UNDER in 4 of Bowling Green’s last 6 games when playing Northern Illinois.
Northern Illinois is 6-0 SU when leading at the half this season. Bowling Green is 5-1 SU when taking a lead into halftime.
Northern Illinois is 9-0 SU when leading at the start of the 4th quarter this season. Bowling Green is 5-0 SU when carrying a lead into the fourth quarter.
This season, Northern Illinois is undefeated (4-0 SU) in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 2-1 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Bowling Green is undefeated 2-1 SU in games where it wins the turnover battle, and 5-2 SU in games where it loses the turnover battle.
Since the beginning of last season, Bowling Green is 13-4 SU against MAC opponents, while Northern Illinois is 15-2 SU against conference foes.
Nationally, the Bowling Green passing attack is ranked 42nd, while the Northern Illinois pass defense is only ranked 73rd. The Huskies passing game is ranked 103rd, compared to the 127th-ranked pass defense of the Falcons.
According to MAC ratings, the Bowling Green offensive passing attack is ranked third in the conference, while the Northern Illinois pass defense is only ranked sixth. The Huskies passing game is ranked 12th, compared to the 13th-ranked pass defense of the Falcons.
The Bowling Green rushing attack is ranked 49th in the country, while the Northern Illinois run defense is only ranked 64th. The Huskies running game is ranked 18th, compared to the 97th-ranked rush defense of the Falcons.
When analyzing just conference stats, the Bowling Green rushing attack is ranked fourth in the MAC, while the Northern Illinois run defense is only ranked sixth. The Huskies run game is ranked second, compared to the 10th-ranked rush defense of the Falcons.
