In less than a week, we will know whether or not the Republican Party will keep its majorities in the House and the Senate. The GOP has its work cut out for it in the House, and they are currently projected to lose their majority there. FiveThirtyEight projects the Republicans to have a scant 15.4 percent chance of retaining control of the lower branch of Congress and the Democrats are expected to gain 38 seats on average. However, the forecast isn’t so rosy for the Democrats in the Senate. Let’s breakdown some of midterm senate race odds.
US Midterm Senate Race Odds
Democrats retake the senate +630
Republicans retain the senate -2095
There is probably going to be a blue wave sweeping the nation on Tuesday, November 6, 2018, but it is unlikely to reach the Senate. That’s mostly due to the circumstances at play in the upper house of Congress. The majority of the Senate seats up for grabs this election cycle are currently held by Democrats and of the 65 seats not up for election, 42 belong to the GOP. With Vice President Mike Pence holding the hammer in case of a tied vote, that means the Republicans only need to hold on to eight seats in order to retain the Senate.
States like Mississippi, Utah, and Wyoming are locks to vote for their GOP candidates, and Nebraska is nearly a lock to go red too. That leaves the GOP needing just three more seats since both of Mississippi’s Senate seats are up for grabs this year. They are very likely to get them too. Although much has been made about Kevin Cramer, Ted Cruz, and Marsha Blackburn losing their seats, they are betting favorites to win those seats. Additionally, the GOP has at least a coinflip chance in Florida, Indiana, and Missouri, so they are justifiable favorites to keep control.
Midterm Senate Race Odds for Florida
Bill Nelson (D) -340
Rick Scott (R) +180
The odds have moved in favor of the incumbent Bill Nelson in this race. Nelson is considered to have a 72.4 percent chance of retaining his seat according to FiveThirtyEight, and he has edged out to a narrow lead in the polls. Nelson has been ahead in seven of the last eight polls conducted, and the last two polls had him ahead by two points. Each of those polls had robust sample sizes of 2500 registered voters, so you can feel comfortable in his chances.
I would bet on Nelson for an additional reason too — there are some important amendments on the ballot in Florida this year that should lead to increased turnout among Democrats. The biggest of those amendments is Amendment 4, which restores the right to vote to certain felons. That amendment has been pushed hard by Democratic leaders, and it should lead to more left-leaning voters heading to the polls.
Midterm Senate Race Odds for Tennessee
Phil Bredesen (D) +235
Marsha Blackburn (R) -500
This race received nationwide attention after Taylor Swift publicly declared that she could not support Marsha Blackburn. Swift wrote a lengthy Instagram post detailing her reasons behind backing Democratic candidate Phil Bredesen instead, and that has led to increased funding and awareness for Bredesen over the past three weeks.
Unfortunately for Bredesen, he still doesn’t have much of a chance. FiveThirtyEight gives him just a 16.7 percent chance of winning the seat and he has been down by eight and nine points in the past two polls. One of those polls was taken by FOX News so take that for what its worth, but the other was conducted by a reliable polling company in Emerson. Although I don’t like her either, I’ll hold my nose and bet on Blackburn here.
Midterm Senate Race Odds for Texas
Beto O’Rourke (D) +275
Ted Cruz (R) -630
No senate race has been more hotly contested than this one in recent memory. Beto O’Rourke has done an incredible job to make a seemingly safe seat extremely competitive in the state of Texas. He has raised more than double the amount of money that Cruz has since announcing his intention to run, and that gives him at least a chance to knock off Cruz. O’Rourke has been given a little better than a 20 percent chance to win at FiveThirtyEight, a figure that is much higher than anyone would have believed six months ago for a Democrat in Texas.
Although O’Rourke has been as great of a candidate as you could ask for, he is still facing an uphill battle. He has not been ahead in any poll released over the past six months, and it’s very likely that Cruz holds onto the seat. I’m not going to bet Cruz at -630, but I wouldn’t fault others for doing so.
US Midterm Senate Race Odds by State from BetDSI
Arizona
Krysten Sinema (D) -180
Martha McSally (R) +105
California
Dianne Feinstein (D) -10000
Kevin de Leon (D) +2500
Connecticut
Chris Murphy (D) -40000
Matthew Corey (R) +10000
Delaware
Thomas R. Carper (D) -30000
Rob Arlett (R) +7500
Florida
Bill Nelson (D) -340
Rick Scott (R) +180
Hawaii
Mazie K. Hirono (D) -50000
Ron Curtis (R) +12500
Indiana
Joe Donnelly (D) -225
Mike Braun (R) +130
Massachusetts
Elizabeth Warren (D) -50000
Geoff Diehl (R) +12500
Maryland
Benjamin L. Cardin (D) -40000
Tony Campbell (R) +10000
Maine
Angus S. King Jr. (I) -40000
Eric L. Brakey (R) +10000
Michigan
Debbie Stabenow (D) -20000
John James (R) +5000
Minnesota (Special)
Tina Smith (D) -20000
Karin Housley (R) +5000
Minnesota
Amy Klobuchar (D) -40000
Jim Newberger (R) +10000
Mississippi
David Baria (D) +545
Roger F. Wicker (R) -3875
Mississippi (Special)
Mike Espy (D) +590
Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) -5565
Field +2850
Missouri
Claire McCaskill (D) -145
Josh Hawley (R) -120
Montana
Jon Tester (D) -670
Matt Rosendale (R) +285
Nebraska
Jane Raybould (D) +2000
Deb Fischer (R) -5000
Nevada
Jacky Rosen (D) -120
Dean Heller (R) -140
New Jersey
Robert Menendez (D) -6325
Bob Hugin (R) +585
New Mexico
Martin Heinrich (D) -20000
Mick Rich (R) +5000
New York
Kirsten E. Gillibrand (D) -50000
Chele Farley (R) +12500
North Dakota
Heidi Heitkamp (D) +355
Kevin Cramer (R) -1020
Ohio
Sherrod Brown (D) -2500
Jim Renacci (R) +1500
Rhode Island
Sheldon Whitehouse (D) -30000
Bob Flanders (R) +7500
Virginia
Tim Kaine (D) -10000
Corey Stewart (R) +2500
Vermont
Bernie Sanders (I) -50000
Lawrence Zupan (R) +12500
Washington
Maria Cantwell (D) -30000
Susan Hutchison (R) +7500
West Virginia
Joe Manchin III (D) -8560
Patrick Morrisey (R) +605
Wisconsin
Tammy Baldwin (D) -4000
Leah Vukmir (R) +1800
Pennsylvania
Robert P. Casey Jr. (D) -5000
Lou Barletta (R) +2000
Tennessee
Phil Bredesen (R) +235
Marsha Blackburn (R) -500
Texas
Beto O’Rourke (D) +275
Ted Cruz (R) -630
Utah
Jenny Wilson (D) +7500
Mitt Romney (R) -30000
Wyoming
Gary Trauner (D) +12500
John Barrasso (R) -50000
