The Milwaukee Brewers will head east to play the New York Mets at Citi Field. The opening pitch is scheduled for 7:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be televising this NL matchup.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Odds
Oddsmakers are listing New York (-130) as the favorite over Milwaukee (+120). The total stands at 8.5 runs and bettors can wager on the over for -105 and the under for -115. Bettors can also wager on the game’s spread with the current runline odds standing at Brewers +1.5 runs (-175) and Mets +-1.5 runs (+155).
The Brewers are 7-6 SU and have gone 5-8 against the spread (ATS). They’ve gained 1.8 units for gamblers taking the moneyline this year, despite having lost 4.9 units ATS. The Mets are 10-1 SU and 10-1 ATS. The team has gained 10.5 units for bettors taking the moneyline and 11.1 units ATS.
New York games have a 5-6 over/under record so far in 2018. The Brewers have an over/under record of 6-7.
The Brewers have gained 0.0 units and are 1-3 ATS when facing a lefty starter this season. The over has cashed in one of those games, compared to three that’ve gone under in such games. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 7.0 units and are 7-1 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in four of those games, as opposed to four which went under the total.
Zach Davies (0-1, 5.40 ERA) will get the start for the visiting Brewers. The right-handed Davies started 33 games last year while finishing the season 17-9 overall with a 3.90 ERA and a 1.35 WHIP. He made two starts against the Mets in 2017 and compiled a 1-0 record against them with a 5.40 ERA and three strikeouts.
The Mets are going with lefty Steven Matz (0-1, 3.00 ERA) as their starter. Matz started 13 games last year while finishing the season 2-7 overall with a 6.08 ERA and a 1.53 WHIP.
New York’s pitching staff has given up 2.8 runs per game overall in 2018 as a unit. The club’s starters have a 3.17 ERA, 1.11 WHIP and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 1.49, a WHIP of 1.09 and a K/9 of 10.8.
New York’s hitters have produced 5.0 runs per outing, including 5.0 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .214/.306/.370 over its last five contests and is 5-0 SU during that span.
Second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera and right fielder Michael Conforto have led the Mets’ batters so far. Cabrera is slashing .333/.388/.600 with 15 hits, five RBIs and 10 runs scored, while Conforto’s line is .333/.478/.611 with six hits, three RBIs and five runs.
Cabrera seemed to have a little trouble hitting at home in 2017. In 241 plate appearances, he slashed .245/.315/.366 (compared to his overall season line of .280/.351/.434).
For the visitors, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.5 runs per game and its starters own a 4.66 ERA, 1.42 WHIP and 7.13 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 2.72, along with a WHIP of 1.42.
Brewers hitters have slashed .240/.300/.371 on their way to 3.4 runs scored per game this year, including 2.7 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 2.6 per game over the team’s last five contests (2-3 SU).
Milwaukee’s offense has been led by Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar. Thames is slashing .263/.364/.711 with 10 hits, five homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, while Aguilar is slashing .333/.500/.417 with four hits, zero RBIs and two runs scored.
Compared to his overall season slash line of .247/.359/.518, Thames did not seem to enjoy hitting against lefties on the road last year, maintaining a slash line of .176/.236/.353 across 55 such plate appearances.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets MLB Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The over has hit in three of Milwaukee’s last seven games.
The Milwaukee defense has allowed 14 errors over the last 10 games, compared to eight errors for New York over its last 10.
Both teams have hit 11 home runs over their last 10 outings.
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