The Milwaukee Brewers will be taking on the New York Mets at Citi Field. This NL matchup will get underway at 1:10 p.m. ET and Fox Sports Net Wisconsin will be airing the game.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Odds
New York (-190) is the favorite over Milwaukee (+180) and Vegas has set the Over/Under for this afternoon game at 7.5 runs. The odds for wagering on the game’s total sit at +110 for the over and -130 for the under. Runline odds stand at -125 for taking the Brewers +1.5 runs and +105 for the Mets -1.5.
The Mets are 11-2 SU and 10-2 ATS. They’ve gained 11.5 units for moneyline bettors and 10.1 units against the spread (ATS). New York has covered the spread six times in its last seven games and the total went over in four of those seven. The Brewers are 8-7 SU and have gone 6-8 ATS. Overall, the team’s gained 0.8 units for moneyline gamblers in this young season, but have lost 3.9 units ATS. Milwaukee’s covered the spread four times in its last seven games and the total has gone over in four of those seven.
Mets games have an over/under record of 6-6 so far in 2018. Milwaukee has an over/under record of 7-7.
The Brewers have gained 1.8 units and are 4-5 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher this season. The over has cashed in five of those games, as opposed to four that’ve hit the under against righties. On the other hand, the Mets have netted 8.1 units and are 7-2 ATS when facing a right-handed starting pitcher. The over has hit in five of those games, as opposed to four that’ve cashed the under.
The right-handed Jhoulys Chacin (0-1, 6.59 ERA) will get the nod for the visiting Brewers. Chacin started 32 games last year while finishing the season 13-10 overall with a 3.89 ERA and a 1.27 WHIP. He made two starts against the Mets in 2017 and compiled a 1-1 record against them with a 13.50 ERA and five strikeouts.
The Mets are rolling with righty Noah Syndergaard (2-0, 3.94 ERA) as their starter. Syndergaard struck out 34 hitters over 30 innings last year (7 starts). Syndergaard finished the season 1-2 overall with a 2.97 ERA and a 1.05 WHIP.
As a unit, New York’s pitching staff has given up 3.2 runs per game overall this season. Its starting pitching staff has an ERA of 3.60, a WHIP of 1.14 and a strikeouts-per-nine of 9.9. The bullpen has a solid ERA of just 1.62, a WHIP of 1.08 and a K/9 of 10.6.
The New York hitters are putting up 4.8 runs per outing, including 4.6 per game over its last 10 games and 4.6 per game over their last five. The team has slashed .205/.291/.372 over its last five matchups and is 4-1 SU during that stretch.
The Mets’ batters have been led by third baseman Todd Frazier and second baseman Asdrubal Cabrera. Frazier is hitting .293/.436/.537 with 12 hits, eight RBIs and eight runs scored, while Cabrera’s line is .321/.368/.566 with 17 hits, five RBIs and 12 runs.
Frazier seemed to have some trouble hitting right-handed pitching at home last year. Over 208 such plate appearances, he slashed .165/.308/.247 (his total season line was .214/.345/.425).
For the visitors, Milwaukee’s pitchers have allowed 4.4 runs per game and its starters own a 4.72 ERA, 1.39 WHIP and 7.19 K/9. The bullpen has managed an ERA of 2.59, along with a K-per-9 of 10.63.
Brewers hitters have slashed .244/.302/.397 on their way to 3.6 runs scored per game this season, including 2.8 runs per game over the team’s last 10 games and 4.2 per game over the team’s last five outings (3-2 SU).
Eric Thames and Jesus Aguilar have led Milwaukee’s offense. Thames is hitting .233/.327/.628 with 10 hits, five homers, seven RBIs and eight runs scored, while Aguilar is hitting .438/.550/.563 with seven hits, zero RBIs and three runs scored.
Compared to his total season slash line of .265/.331/.505, Aguilar performed well against right-handed pitching on the road last year, putting up a slash line of .309/.368/.606 across 106 such plate appearances.
Milwaukee Brewers at New York Mets Prediction
Predictions: SU Winner – Mets, ATS Winner – Brewers, O/U – OVER
Notes
Betting Trends
The Milwaukee defense has allowed 13 errors over the last 10 games, compared to eight errors for New York over its last 10.
The Brewers have hit 12 home runs in their last 10 games, including nine over their last five.
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