The Milwaukee Bucks (39-35) will try to slow down the NBA’s top scoring team when they meet the Golden State Warriors (54-20) at ORACLE Arena. The game starts at 10:30 p.m. ET on Thursday, March 29, 2018, and will air on TNT.
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors Free Prediction
In the Bucks’ last contest, they were topped by the Los Angeles Clippers, 105-98. Los Angeles’ turnover percentage was their largest strength over Milwaukee. The Clippers had a rate of 12.2 (better than their season average of 12.7), while the Bucks posted a mark of 14.7. Giannis Antetokounmpo was the top scorer from either team with 26 points on 10-for-16 shooting.
The Warriors were beaten by the Indiana Pacers in their last game, 92-81. Indiana’s turnover percentage was their largest advantage over Golden State. The Pacers had a rate of 9.4 (better than their season average of 12.0), while the Warriors posted a mark of 14.3. Golden State’s Kevon Looney contributed eight points and 11 rebounds in the contest.
It could be a mistake-prone game for the Golden State offense. Golden State ranks 28th in the NBA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 15.0 percent), while the disruptive defense of Milwaukee forces the fifth-most turnovers in the NBA (14.8 percent).
Milwaukee heads into the game with records of 39-35 straight up (SU) and 30-39-5 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bucks’ 74 games, 39 have finished over the O/U total.
Golden State is 54-20 SU, but they have a difficult time covering the spread (30-41-3 ATS). In opposition of Milwaukee, games including the Warriors have gone under the O/U total 51.4 percent of the time.
Quinn Cook has averaged 20.6 points, 5.2 assists and 1.4 steals over the last five games for Golden State.
This will be the second game of the season between these two teams. In the first, Draymond Green had 21 points, 10 rebounds and seven assists and the Warriors beat the Bucks 108-94, covering as 4.5-point favorites. The game finished with a total of 202 points, which was 19.5 points below the projected point total of 221.5 points. The Warriors made 15 of their 18 free throws (83.3 percent) and had a much better offensive rebounding percentage (28.6 vs. 19.5).
Milwaukee Bucks at Golden State Warriors Pick
Free Pick: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Milwaukee is 18-16-2 ATS with 19 overs, 16 unders and 1 push.
At home, Golden State is 15-21-2 ATS with 21 unders and 17 overs.
Milwaukee is 16-5 when they hold opponents below 100 points, while Golden State is 14-5.
The Warriors are 51-12 when they score over 100 points, while the Bucks are 33-18.
Milwaukee ranks third in points off turnovers per game (18.1) while Golden State ranks 27th in points off turnovers allowed per game (18.6).
The Bucks rank second in fast break points allowed per game (9.6) while the Warriors rank 24th (13.8).
Milwaukee ranks fourth in steals per game (8.6) while Golden State ranks 25th in steals allowed per game (8.6).
The Warriors rank 14th in rebounds per game (43.9) while the Bucks rank last (39.4).
Milwaukee averages 46.5 points in the paint per game, which ranks eighth in the NBA. Golden State ranks 23rd in points allowed in the paint per game (46.8).
The Warriors rank first in assists per game (29.6) while the Bucks rank 14th (22.9).
Milwaukee ranks 22nd in second chance points allowed per game (13.0) while Golden State ranks last (13.8).
The Warriors rank first in blocks per game (7.7) while the Bucks rank fifth (5.5).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under.
Golden State is 2-3 ATS with 3 unders and 2 overs over their last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 1.0, up from 0.3 for the season.
During their last five games, the Warriors have scored an average of 95.4 points per game (18.6 below their season average) and allowed an average of 98.8 points per game (8.2 below their season average).
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