The Milwaukee Bucks (22-19) visit Miami to take on the Heat (24-17) in a game that will likely be low scoring. The game can be seen on Fox Sports Net Wisconsin at 1 p.m. ET on Sunday, January 14, 2018.
The Over/Under (O/U) for the game opened at 205 points with Miami set as a 2-point favorite.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat ATS Prediction
In the Bucks’ last contest, they were defeated by the Golden State Warriors, 108-94. Golden State’s free throw rate was their largest strength over Milwaukee. The Warriors had a rate of 0.188 (below their season average of 0.197), while the Bucks posted a mark of 0.129 (below their season average of 0.222). Giannis Antetokounmpo led Milwaukee in scoring with 23 points on 10-for-19 shooting.
The Heat were victorious over the Indiana Pacers in their last matchup, 114-106. Miami made 13 of their 30 three pointers (43.3 percent). Indiana, on the other hand, held the Heat to an offensive rebounding percentage of 15.4 (below their season average of 20.5). With 16 points and 15 rebounds, Hassan Whiteside put together a solid game for Miami.
Half-court execution will be critical when a pair of the NBA’s slowest-paced teams clash. Miami ranks 28th in possessions per game (96.6) and Milwaukee is 26th (97.1). Additionally, second chance points figure to be rare for the Bucks. They rank 29th in the league in offensive rebounding percentage at 19.1 percent, while the Heat are fifth-best on the defensive glass (defensive rebounding percentage of 79.2 percent).
Milwaukee holds records of 22-19 straight up (SU) and 18-18-5 against the spread (ATS). Vegas has a tendency to place the total low when the Bucks are involved, as 24 of their 41 games have finished over the total.
Meanwhile, Miami owns records of 24-17 SU and 18-21-2 ATS. Unlike Milwaukee, Heat games have a tendency to go under the O/U total (56.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Malcolm Brogdon (14.4 points, 5.4 rebounds and 3.8 assists) has been fantastic for the Bucks while Goran Dragic (21.6 points, 7.4 assists and 6.0 rebounds) has contributed greatly to the Heat.
After the Heat won three out of four contests against the Bucks last season, these teams will go head-to-head for the first time this year. In the most recent contest, Miami won 106-88. Miami won the rebounding battle. The Heat had 14 offensive rebounds and 48 total rebounds, while the Bucks had five and 33, respectively.
Milwaukee Bucks at Miami Heat Free Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Bucks, ATS Winner – Bucks, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
On the road, Milwaukee is 10-7-2 ATS with 12 overs, 6 unders and 1 push.
At home, Miami is 5-13-2 ATS with 10 unders, 9 overs and 1 push.
When holding opponents under 100 points, Milwaukee is 8-2 and Miami is 14-3.
The Bucks are 18-11 when they score over 100 points, while the Heat are 18-6.
Milwaukee ranks sixth in points in the paint per game (48.0) while Miami ranks 27th (41.0).
The Bucks rank seventh in fast break points per game (13.6) while the Heat rank 28th (7.5).
Miami ranks sixth in three pointers attempted per game (31.3) while Milwaukee ranks 26th (24.5).
The Bucks rank second in blocks allowed per game (3.8) while the Heat rank 14th (4.7).
Miami ranks third in assists allowed per game (20.1) while Milwaukee ranks 14th (22.5).
The Bucks rank eighth in points off turnovers per game (17.8) while the Heat rank 18th in points off turnovers allowed per game (16.6).
Milwaukee ranks fourth in steals allowed per game (6.9) while Miami ranks 12th (7.5).
The Heat rank 24th in rebounds per game (41.6) while the Bucks rank last (38.5).
Miami is 27th in the NBA with 10.0 second chance points per game while Milwaukee is 28th with 9.7 second chance points per game.
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Milwaukee is 1-4 ATS with 3 unders, 1 over and 1 push.
Miami is 3-2 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Bucks’ average margin of defeat in their last five games has been 6.4, up from 0.7 for the season.
During their last five games, the Heat have scored an average of 105.0 points per game (4.0 above their season average) and allowed an average of 100.8 points per game (1.2 below their season average).
