The Missouri State Bears (13-4, 3-1 MVC) and the Evansville Aces (11-6, 1-3 MVC), who both like to play slow, will battle at Ford Center. The game gets underway at 8 p.m. ET on Wednesday, January 10, 2018.
Missouri State opened as a 2.5-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 124.5 points.
Missouri State Bears vs. Evansville Aces Betting Prediction
The Bears are trying to rebound after their 72-68 loss to the Illinois State Redbirds in their last outing. Illinois State’s 8.1 turnover percentage was their largest strength over Missouri State, who had a mark of 23.2. The Redbirds’ mark was better than their season average of 16.2, while the Bears’ was above their season average of 15.2. Missouri State’s James Miller put together a good outing, finishing with 16 points and 11 rebounds.
In the Aces’ last matchup, they dismantled the Bradley Braves, 68-44. The Aces, who came into the game averaging an offensive rebounding percentage of 27.8, had a phenomenal mark of 38.5 and held the Braves to an effective field goal percentage of 0.384 (below their season average of 0.507). With 14 points and six assists, Dru Smith had a good outing for Evansville.
Half-court execution will be at a premium when two of the nation’s slowest-paced teams battle. Evansville currently ranks 345th in possessions per game (64.6) and Missouri State is 327th (66.4). Furthermore, the Bears rank 19th in offensive rebounding percentage (36.0 percent), while the Aces rank 40th in defensive rebounding percentage (75.1 percent).
Missouri State comes into the contest with records of 13-4 straight up (SU) and 8-6 against the spread (ATS). Of the Bears’ 14 games that accepted bets, nine have finished under the total.
Meanwhile, Evansville owns records of 11-6 SU and 9-4 ATS. Much like Missouri State, games featuring the Aces also have typically finished under the total (76.9 percent).
Alize Johnson has averaged 16.0 points and 12.8 rebounds over the last five games for Missouri State.
After splitting two games last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. The Aces won the most recent game 74-66. The Aces had a much better turnover percentage (7.4 vs. 15.8) and had a better free throw rate (0.288 vs. 0.212).
Missouri State Bears at Evansville Aces Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Evansville, ATS Winner – Evansville, O/U – Under
Notes
Betting Notes:
Missouri State is 5-4 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 4 overs.
Evansville is 4-2 ATS at home with 4 unders and 2 overs.
Missouri State ranks 12th in rebounds per game (41.4) while Evansville ranks 222nd (32.9).
The Bears rank 40th in steals allowed per game (5.4) while the Aces rank 161st (7.8).
Missouri State ranks 12th in assists allowed per game (10.1) while Evansville ranks 105th (13.1).
The Bears rank 201st in three pointers attempted per game (19.4) while the Aces rank 265th (13.4).
Missouri State ranks 53rd in blocks per game (4.4) while Evansville ranks 112th in blocks allowed per game (4.1).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Missouri State is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over.
Evansville is 3-2 ATS with 4 unders and 1 over over their last five games.
The Bears’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 8.2, down from 9.8 for the season.
During their last five games, the Aces have scored an average of 59.2 points per game (9.2 below their season average) and allowed an average of 70.2 points per game (5.8 above their season average).
