NCAAF Picks: The Kentucky Wildcats have shown marked improvement under second year head coach Mark Stoops and are just one win shy of a bowl bid. However, they also seem to be wearing down with a two game losing streak in the tough SEC. The Missouri Tigers have struggled through a massive roster turnover from last year to clinch bowl eligibility but their offensive woes have not yet been fixed.
The Tigers will host the Wildcats at Farout Field on Saturday with coverage on the SEC Network starting at 4 PM ET. Missouri opened as a seven point favorite.
Cats Wearing Down but Maintain Value
Kentucky is 5-3 straight up, 6-2 against the spread and 5-3 over the total. The Wildcats are coming off a 45-31 home loss to Mississippi State. Kentucky’s metrics are now middle of the national pack after being near the bottom the past two seasons. UK ranks 56th for total offense as well as for total defense. Stoops has the program heading in the right direction.
Half a Team
Mizzou is 6-2 SU, 4-4 ATS, and 3-5 under the total afar a 24-14 home payout against Vanderbilt. The Tigers offense has been inept during a horrible one month slump. Mizzou ranks 117th in the nation for total offense and 113th for passing offense. The massive amount of turnover due to graduation has taken its toll and QB Maty Mauk has regressed after impressing as a part time starter last year. Defense is the strength of Mizzou and has saved their season. The Tigers rank 24th in the nation for scoring defense and again have one of the top front lines and pass rushes in the SEC.
Our Pick
Kentucky has been a weak betting value on the road with just five payouts in their last 20 away matchups. The Wildcats have gone over the total in four out of their last six road games.
Missouri has been a reliable home value and has paid out in eight out of their last 12 home games with eight out of their last 11 home games going under the total.
Mizzou has won and covered the last two meetings in this head to head series with the Tigers and Wildcats going 1-1 on totals in those matchups. We like the Missouri Tigers and over the total in this one.
