It will be a battle between BigSky opponents when the Sacramento State Hornets (4-12, 1-2 BigSky) welcome the Montana Grizzlies (11-5, 4-0 BigSky) to The Hornets Nest. The game is scheduled to begin at 10:05 p.m. ET on Thursday, January 11, 2018.
Montana opened as a 9-point favorite, while the Over/Under (O/U) for the game has been set at 139 points.
Montana Grizzlies vs. Sacramento State Hornets Free Prediction
In the Grizzlies’ last outing, they beat the Northern Colorado Bears, 89-80. The Grizzlies had a phenomenal offensive rebounding percentage of 45.2 (above their season average of 35.0) and had a free throw rate of 0.491 (above their season average of 0.257). With 34 points on 11-for-16 shooting, Jamar Akoh was the game’s leading scorer.
The Hornets were beaten by the Eastern Washington Eagles in their last matchup, 82-67. Eastern Washington’s effective field goal percentage was their largest advantage over Sacramento State. The Eagles had a rate of 0.638 (above their season average of 0.511), while the Hornets posted a mark of 0.466. Sacramento State’s Justin Strings had 14 points and eight rebounds in the contest.
This has potential to be a sloppy game for the offense of Sacramento State. Sacramento State ranks 260th in the NCAA in ball protection (turnover percentage of 20.3 percent), while the pesky defense of Montana forces the 20th-most turnovers in the NCAA (24.0 percent). Moreover, the Grizzlies, who rank 27th in offensive rebounding percentage (35.5 percent), will square off against the Hornets, who rank 255th in defensive rebounding percentage (69.3 percent).
Montana heads into the game with records of 11-5 straight up (SU) and 10-4 against the spread (ATS). Grizzlies games have typically finished over the O/U total (64.3 percent).
Meanwhile, Sacramento State owns records of 4-12 SU and 7-6-1 ATS. Unlike Montana, Hornets games tend to finish under the projected point total (57.1 percent).
Both teams have had a player take their game to the next level over their last five games. Akoh (19.4 points, 7.8 rebounds and 1.2 steals) has been stellar for the Grizzlies while Strings (20.6 points, 8.4 rebounds and 3.2 assists) has made great contributions to the Hornets.
After the Hornets won both meetings against the Grizzlies last season, this will be the first matchup of the year between these two teams. In the last contest, Sacramento State won 67-65. Getting to the free throw line was one of Sacramento State’s biggest advantages. They had 28 free throw attempts, while Montana had 17.
Montana Grizzlies at Sacramento State Hornets Pick
Predictions: SU Winner – Montana, ATS Winner – Montana, O/U – Over
Notes
Betting Notes:
Montana is 5-4 ATS on the road with 5 unders and 4 overs.
Sacramento State is 1-1-1 ATS at home with 2 unders and 1 over.
Montana ranks 34th in steals per game (8.0) while Sacramento State ranks 186th (4.8).
The Grizzlies rank 11th in assists allowed per game (9.9) while the Hornets rank 155th (14.0).
Montana ranks 50th in rebounds allowed per game (32.1) while Sacramento State ranks 181st (36.6).
The Grizzlies rank sixth in three pointers allowed per game (15.9) while the Hornets rank 118th (21.5).
Sacramento State ranks 122nd in blocks per game (3.1) while Montana ranks 156th in blocks allowed per game (5.0).
Bettings Trends:
In their last five games, Montana is 5-0 ATS with 3 overs and 2 unders.
Sacramento State is 2-3 ATS with 4 overs and 1 under over their last five games.
The Grizzlies’ average margin of victory in their last five games has been 16.8, up from 8.1 for the season.
During their last five games, the Hornets have scored an average of 72.4 points per game (6.5 above their season average) and allowed an average of 77.6 points per game (5.2 above their season average).
