Since the World Cup expanded to 32 teams in 1998, there have been 28 quarterfinal matches. Fourteen of those games were decided by a one-goal margin, five ended with a victory by two goals or more and nine were settled by penalty kicks. That means roughly 82 percent of modern World Cup quarterfinals have been decided by a single goal or less, and about a third were tied after 120 minutes.
Those figures help explain why individual moments and individual players grow more decisive as the tournament progresses. With scoring at a premium and single-goal margins common, one successful shot or one defensive stop can determine a tie. The expectation heading into the 2026 quarterfinals is that at least one match will go to penalties and that at least three will finish with only a one-goal difference.
Systematic dominance matters over the long run, but the tournament’s late stages often hinge on individual brilliance and high-leverage execution. With that in mind, attention is turning to the superstars and supporting players most likely to have an outsized impact in the quarterfinal round.
France’s attacking midfielder Michael Olise is singled out as the player most critical to his country’s chances. The team is described as having discrete groups of defenders and attackers with midfielders who cover ground but do not consistently knit the defense and attack together. The analysis argues France “would not work without” Olise and that, with him, the team are favorites to win the World Cup.
Per the stats app Futi, Olise is involved in 11 percent of France’s phases of play, the highest rate on the team. He ranks second on the squad in expected goals generated while leading the tournament with five assists. Olise is completing 83 percent of his passes, leads France with 32 progressive passes, is second on the team in defensive actions in the attacking half and tops the squad in progressive carries. The profile describes him as an elite passer and shot creator whose playmaking is central to stopping other threats, notably Kylian Mbappé.
