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Atlanta Hawks Season Preview

The Atlanta Hawks suffered a lot of bad luck last season and have endured controversy off the court as well. Can this team make a fresh start this season and block out various distractions?

What Went Wrong Last Season?

The Hawks were in the top three of the Eastern Conference through the first third of the season, and then their star forward, Al Horford, got injured. Horford started in 29 games for the Hawks, but when he went down, the remaining 53 games revealed a team that couldn’t compensate for his absence. Atlanta went from being a team likely to have home-court advantage in the first round of the playoffs to a team that barely slipped in the playoffs at all. The Hawks went from a team that was several games above .500 to a team that finished at 38-44.  They were lucky to make the postseason only because the rest of the East wasn’t able to reach 40 wins on the season.

The Hawks suffered without Horford, and the numbers that told the story began with Horford himself. The forward averaged 18.6 points and 8.4 rebounds per game when he played. Missing out on that level of production immediately set back Atlanta, certainly to the extent that it was hard to replace that every night. Sometimes, the Hawks got hot from three-point range; the team chose to shoot a lot more threes with Horford unable to play. However, when the threes didn’t fall, this team had nothing to fall back on.

Atlanta was 27th in the league in two-point field goals made and attempted – that was no accident. Horford was the player who filled that gap. The Hawks were also 24th in the NBA in turnovers and 26th in blocked shots. They were 29th in offensive rebounds, something Horford definitely would have improved upon. They were 24th in the league in one specific defensive category: assist passes allowed. Teams moved the ball well against the Hawks, often closer to the basket than Atlanta’s coaching staff would have liked.

In the playoffs, Atlanta had a 3-2 series lead over the Indiana Pacers in the first round and had a three-point lead at home in Game 6 near the three-minute mark of the fourth quarter. In those final three minutes, the Hawks’ offense went dead, as the team couldn’t find the right guy to shoot the ball and also failed to get something easy going to the rim. Horford would have enabled Atlanta to win that series. This team lacked its best player and never really recovered from that fact.

Offseason Changes

Thabo Sefolosha, arriving from the Oklahoma City Thunder, is the big new face in town, as is first-round draft pick Adreian Payne. If Sefolosha can play defense and drive to the basket enough to offset some of last season’s weaknesses, the Hawks could have a team that improves even more than it will due to Horford’s return from the injured list.

Projected Finish

The Hawks know that Brad Beal of the Washington Wizards is injured, and that Wizards veteran Paul Pierce banged his knee in a recent preseason game. If the Wizards are hurt, the Hawks have a real chance to win the Southeast Division and get a top-two seed in the East, even though the Chicago Bulls will have a better record.

Pick: Fourth In The Eastern Conference

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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