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Miami Heat Season Preview

Can the Heat still make the playoffs with a Big 2 instead of a Big 3?

The Miami Heat won the last four Eastern Conference championships, but their dream of becoming the first team to win five straight conference championships since the 1960’s Boston Celtics seems remote.

What Went Wrong Last Season?

Last season a number of things went wrong for the Heat, but in the end, only one thing really went awry for a team that managed to win a fourth straight Eastern Conference title and move to the NBA Finals yet again. The Heat were dogged by injuries last season, specifically to Dwyane Wade, whose various bumps and bruises forced him to miss roughly a third of the whole 82-game regular season. Wade was preserved and rested by head coach Erik Spoelstra so that he would have enough energy for the playoffs. That’s something the Heat had done in previous seasons, but it was even more obvious this past season. Miami had to deal with injuries to Chris Andersen and Udonis Haslem as well during the course of the season. A team with a lot of old players felt its age at many points.

The Heat’s lingering problem was that with such a guard- and wing-oriented lineup, they didn’t have a take-charge rebounder in their starting five. Chris Bosh was a good defender and three-point shooter, but he’s not been a good rebounder. LeBron James plays great defense, but he’s not a rebounding machine, either. Dwyane Wade fits into the same category as well. The Heat were dead last in the NBA – 30th out of 30 teams – in all three rebounding categories: defensive boards, offensive boards, and overall rebounding. With the league having 30 teams, Miami finished in the bottom half (no better than 16th) in turnovers, free throw attempts, and blocked shots. This was an ordinary team in some respects. LeBron and Bosh were able to make it extremely good in other ways, and that’s what carried this team through, plus some timely shooting by Ray Allen and some two-way contributions by Wade.

The big problem for the Heat, though, was just one thing: Miami played the San Antonio Spurs and not anyone else in the 2014 NBA Finals. The Spurs wanted to avenge the 2013 Finals, and they had all the pieces in place to make Miami look bad. The Spurs could play big or small. They could run, but they could also play halfcourt basketball. They shot the ball well, moved the ball well, defended well, and played three virtually perfect games after splitting the first two of the series. Plain and simple – Miami ran into a better team.

Offseason Changes

Everyone knows what has happened in Miami. LeBron James left, taking the Heat away from the list of top contenders. However, Chris Bosh stayed, keeping the Heat at least somewhat in the running for the East, just not at the top. Miami will need a lot of help to get to the East Finals this season. Ray Allen went to Cleveland to join LeBron, and Luol Deng was brought in to replace him and also help Wade. Danny Granger is trying to revive his career after knocking around a few other teams in recent years. Josh McRoberts, who will be asked to be a primary rebounder on the team, also arrives via free agency. Shabazz Napier was picked in an apparent attempt to appease LeBron, but then LeBron left. Napier is part of a glut of point guards, with Mario Chalmers and Norris Cole. One of them is likely to be moved during the season, one would think.

Projected Finish

The Heat were probably going to miss the playoffs if Bosh had left for the Houston Rockets. Now, this team will make the playoffs, but the loss of LeBron is still going to take this team down several notches. It could win one playoff series, but certainly not two unless it catches a major break.

Pick: Sixth In The Eastern Conference

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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