The Golden State Warriors have been very dominant after the first two NBA Finals games played in Oakland. As much as the Cavaliers might have not played their best ball, or even when they did, the Warriors kept building up the lead to the point that neither victory came in doubt.
Can the Cavs shift the momentum in the NBA Finals
This description of the Finals events perfectly fits this year’s clash between the two teams, but it also applies well to the last year’s series. The Dubs have jumped up on the Cavs, slipped one in Cleveland and then won again for a commanding 3-1 lead they ultimately lost. Even though the Cavs won the last three games, it’s fair to say that the series shifted in the third game, the one when the Cavs realized that they can compete with the Warriors. So, can they change the series again? Is changing of the venue significant factor in the NBA Finals? Those are the fair questions that I’ll try to answer for you as the caravan is moving east to Ohio.
A look at the recent historical data
Ever since the era of Jordan’s Bulls domination, the Western Conference teams have usually hosted the first two games and were supposed to have the home court advantage in the crucial seventh game. Over the course of the last 20 seasons, the NBA Finals series have gone East on 17 occasions. The Lakers (6 times), the Spurs (5) and the Warriors (3) were the favorites most of the times, at least judging by the regular season records. Miami and Cleveland were the two most frequent challengers, which comes to no surprise as this is LeBron James seventh NBA Finals, sixth of which his team had to play the first two games on the road.
While James might be familiar with the situation, West teams haven’t led 2-0 against him many times – this is just the third time his team is leaving the first venue with a potato. Off the seventeen NBA Finals that were travelling east after two games, 9 series were led by the favorites and 8 were tied at one a piece. No dog took the first two games in the last 20 years. Of course, some of the first two games were decided by a single possession and there wasn’t much separating two sides, but keep in mind that that was a different era – teams scored in 80s and 90s in the Finals and the value of a single point was much higher than it is now. Still, off the 17 series in question, only 5 were taken by the Eastern team. The ‘98 Bulls, the ’04 Pistons and the ’12 Heat had their series tied at 1-1. Only the ’06 Heat and the ’16 Cavs have climbed up to win the Finals being down two games from the start.
Underdog teams, or, more precisely, teams projected to play three Finals games at home, have actually been in much better position until the 2013. This was particularly true if they managed to win one game on the road, as by the former rule the NBA Finals was played in 2-3-2 format, meaning that the middle three games were supposed to be played at the team that doesn’t have the home court advantage. It was a remnant of the past days when the travels were much more complicated, so the league finally took away the advantage of playing 3 of the first five games at the arena of the team with a lesser regular season record after it became clear that such an advantage exists.
All Eastern Conference teams that have managed to win the series after playing the first two games on the road had the benefit of playing the next three in front of their own fans. All, except the last year’s Cavaliers. Obviously, it a small sample, but instead of looking just at the historical data, perhaps we should take a look at what did the change of venue mean specifically for the Cavaliers.
Roll back a year
Remember for how long the city of Cleveland has waited for any of the Big Four titles? The inability of the Cleveland’s professional teams to win a championship in any major league sport for a period of 52 years, from 1964 to 2016, even turned into a superstition. Well, even if the curse has been lifted, a repeat is a little greedy don’t you think? All joking aside, the craving for any title has made the Quicken Loans Arena almost like a coliseum and the winning has become a thing of all the people in it, not just the players. It’s the second-largest arena in the NBA by seating capacity, and even with the Warriors being seasoned, experienced team, it was a very tough environment to play in. On the other side, it gave wings to the Cavaliers, who seemed to lack energy in the sunny California.
There are no early games in the NBA Finals, but the time difference can also play a role. Players are creatures of habit, and not just mentally. Their bodies get used to a certain rhythm. Morning walkthrough. Light shoot around. Afternoon nap. Pregame workout. The game. The games in Ohio will be played at biological 5 o’clock for the Warriors players – just about when it’s a midday rest time. It’s a bit too early for their bodies, despite a couple of days spent at the location. You might think that is a tiniest of margins for the Cavs, but the researches have shown that Western Conference teams do play a little bit below their capabilities when going all the way to the East Coast. On top of that, it only takes a slower start to fall back 5-10 points and raise spirits of the Cavaliers and their fans. It’s an uphill battle from there.
Can Cavs do it again?
It’s a common saying that the series doesn’t start until a home team loses, and there will certainly be a different talk should the Cavaliers win the Game 3. They’ll regain confidence and will be very close to tying the series. That should be their short term goal. Don’t think about the 4 wins, just get one.
However, the saying above does have one major flaw. If the Cavaliers lose the next game, the series not only starts, but is as good as done. If the Warriors win and go up 3-0, the series might shift east all the way to central China and the chances of the Cavaliers pulling it back would be slim.
All’s at stake in the Game 3, and the Cavaliers will welcome any help they can get. Their arena might not be a raucous as after a half-of-century drought, but is still a tough place to play in. Whether it’s going to be enough to shift the series again will be decided in the first 20 minutes of the game. As a fan of the game and the NBA, I certainly hope it does. But don’t bet on it. These Warriors are better than the last year’s edition, 73 wins or not.
For more NBA Finals updates stay tuned with Get More Sports and our NBA specialist Steve Brewers7.
