The 2026 NBA offseason could deliver significant movement, with a possible trade involving Giannis Antetokounmpo, ripple effects from the San Antonio Spurs’ surge in the West and uncertainty around LeBron James’ free agency and playing future, according to the report. The New York Knicks also figure prominently, projected to have their full core back after reaching the NBA Finals for the first time in more than 25 years.
Boston faces a particularly complex offseason, according to Bontemps. Last summer the Celtics entered with a projected payroll and luxury tax bill north of $500 million but got below the tax by the February trade deadline without surrendering a first-round pick. Boston still won 56 games and secured the No. 2 seed in the East despite Jayson Tatum missing most of the regular season with a torn Achilles.
Bontemps noted the Celtics’ roster concerns after a first-round loss to Philadelphia, which included blowing a 3-1 series lead and a 3-11 record against the top five teams last season, remarks made by president of basketball operations Brad Stevens. Boston lost Jrue Holiday, Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet in the 2025 offseason with no direct replacements, and the club lacks tradable salary that could help add talent. Jaylen Brown has three seasons remaining on his supermax and can add two more starting July 26; an extension would average $71 million beginning in 2029-30, while waiting could add a season and raise the average to about $79 million, with Brown projected to be 34 in 2031-32.
Frontcourt depth is another issue. Stevens said Boston needs more impact at the rim, and Neemias Queta’s $2.7 million team option and potential extension figure into that plan, according to Bontemps. Exercising Queta’s option would let the Celtics use most of a $15 million non-tax midlevel exception on a center and keep Boston under the luxury tax next season, which would help reset the repeater tax clock and preserve flexibility for 2027-28. Payton Pritchard will soon be due a pay raise, and Tatum and Brown together will account for well north of 60% of the cap over the coming seasons, making timing and structure important.
The Cleveland offseason focus, according to Marks, centers on the potential free agency of James Harden and extension talks with Donovan Mitchell. Harden signed a two-year, $81.5 million contract last offseason with the Clippers that includes a player option, a provision that could enable negotiations with Cleveland for a longer-term deal.
These situations — among the 10 teams highlighted in the report — are expected to help determine the contours of the 2026 summer for the league.
