It’s a short turnaround for the Toronto Raptors and the Milwaukee Bucks as they pack up their bags and cross the border to continue their first round playoff series in a different venue only 2 days after the Raptors managed to take the second home game and tie up the match-up to 1-1. The Bucks will only profit from taking the first game if they can protect their home court and win both games, but their rivals regained their composure after being stunning in the series opener.
LINE: Milwaukee -1.5 (-103); moneyline -114
Total: 197 (-106o, -106u)
Toronto stars respond to even the series
The Toronto Raptors have not only taken the Game 2 106-100, but have also gained by a good response of their stars, Lowry and DeRozan, who disappointed in the previous encounter. By showing that they won’t be deterred by Milwaukee’s trapping defense, they’ve put more confidence in their teammates as well, so instead of all the criticism after the first game, the Raptors have now sailed into the calm waters. The Raptors did much better job of moving the ball and spacing the floor, obviously better prepared for what the Bucks have been trying to do.
Lowry was quicker to react to Milwaukee’s defensive rotation but manage not to be rushed into his decisions. It led to swift moving of the ball to the weak side where the spot up shooters generated space but being ready to shot or drive, and Toronto did much better job of knocking the shots down. They’ve hit 14-of-29 3-pt tries, led by Ibaka’s 4 triples and Joseph’s 3 out of 4. Lowry and DeRozan didn’t force shots to make amends for poor shooting in the first game, trusting their teammates instead. Coach Casey tinkered with the rotations, starting Carroll and playing Ibaka, Tucker and Patterson together to close the game, also inserting Delon Wright for a good stretch in the first half. It created different looks for the Bucks defense, and helped keep their own rhythm.
Despite all the positives, the game was close most of the way. The Toronto Raptors have only managed to create some separation by a nice 10-0 run at the start of the final period, but haven’t been able to wrap up the game before the Bucks could push the lead down back to 1. They’ve shot 48.1 percent from the field and kept their turnovers under control, but their defense had some bad moments. The Raptors used their fouls wisely, keeping the Bucks away from the penalty line for the most part, and limited their rivals to just 41.4 percent from the field. The Bucks missed some close ones, though and got their hands on the offensive glass, a byproduct of Valanciunas missing most of the game again. He was more assertive during his playing time, finishing with 14 points and 10 boards in 22 minutes, but was not a dominant force in the paint he could be.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Thursday April 20th, 2017. 8:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: NBATV
Milwaukee Bucks
The Bucks should be happy with themselves after the Game 2 despite the loss, as they managed to compete and create a chance to win against the good version of Toronto. They shot poorly and coach Kidd didn’t do a great job with the rotations, but still lost by only two possessions.
Milwaukee played their game on both ends at it can give them more confidence for the upcoming games. They are a young team and it’s normal to be a bit less aggressive after stealing one game on the road, so the loss will wake them up.
The Raptors were unable to stop the main levers of Milwaukee offense, but the Bucks were not as efficient this time.
Antetokounmpo took more shots as Raptors played off him plenty, daring him to shoot, and finished with just 9-of-24 shooting. He did contribute in other ways, taking 6 offensive rebounds (15 total) and had 7 assists. Monroe was the main cog for the second unit, scoring 18 points on very efficient 6-of-9 shooting and 6-of-6 from the line.
The Bucks had defensive issues with him in the lineup, but Kidd still overreacted to it and gave starting center Thon Maker the same amount of minutes, and it didn’t turn out too well for them. Snell was excellent again, hitting 4 threes and guarding DeRozan well, while Middleton added 20 points and 5 rebounds. It was Brogdon who failed to deliver, getting outplayed by Lowry and Kidd kept him in for too long.
He has options in Dellavedova and Terry, so he might utilize them more in the following games. The biggest Kidd’s blunt was rolling with Teletovic as the big man to start the fourth quarter. The Raptors immediately took advantage of his lack of defensive skills and he didn’t give anything back on the offensive end.
The Bucks need to keep Antetokounmpo aggressive, but employ him more in the post, where he’s much more capable than launching jumpers. They also need more of an easy shots in transition, so taking more risks on the defensive end and changing it up a bit is likely. Kidd is not afraid of mixing it up and trying out different combinations, it’s just that those are not always to team’s benefit.
Toronto Raptors at Milwaukee Bucks Game 3 Trends & Prediction
The Raptors have won straight up, but couldn’t cover the spread in neither of the home games. They were solid in this department during the regular season, and still have a nice 45-38-1 ATS record this season. As the series shifts over to Wisconsin, Raptors away ATS record of 24-17 brings even more confidence in their moneymaking ability.
The total points were topped in the last game, so the Toronto Raptors are now 45-39 against the O/U, but the most of the over have come at home. On road, the Raptors score almost 4 less points and have a 18-23 over/under record.
Milwaukee covered both times in Canada, improving to 38-46 against the spread and 19-24 on the road. At home, they do better, but the profit lied in the over, where the Bucks were 23-17 this season. Overall, the Bucks are 42-40 against the over/under. Let me remind you again that the Bucks have slowed down in recent weeks and that they haven’t topped 100 points since the first game in April. Over the last 10 games, the Bucks average 95.4 points and give up 99.0 per game.
After closing the market with the Toronto Raptors as an 8-point favorite in both of the games played in Toronto, the books opened with a slight advantage on the Bucks, favoring them by a point. Public has jumped on the small home jolly and pushed it up a bit, so we are looking at about -115 odds on the moneyline. The last game hasn’t changed my perception. The Toronto Raptors are a better team overall, but not by much. I give the home Bucks slightly better chances to win the third game than the market does, but the value is not enough for me to take them.
I’m asking for moneyline +100 on the Bucks and it’s unlikely to become available, so it’s closer to a skip. After successful over in the 2nd game, I’m encouraged to continue with the same tune. My model shows 202.5 for this game, more than enough even without all the positives I’ve seen in the last game. True, the teams have shot extremely well from the deep, but the Bucks could have been more efficient and lacked points in transition, and this is going to change when they get an energy boost from their devoted fans. Go with the overs.
My Pick: (Milwaukee ml +100)
Total: Over 197 points
