It’s a short turnaround for the Boston Celtics and the Washington Wizards, who were given just a single day off to prepare for the Game 1 of the Eastern Conference semifinal series after both teams managed to dispose their first round rivals on the road on Friday night. They took different paths to reach here, but seem as a very evenly matched in terms of sheer talent and the way they are constructed. It looks like this series might last, but it’s still very important to start well. With the national audience tuned in on Sunday, every move will be magnified, so let’s take a look on who will fare better under the spotlight.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics Game 1
LINE: Boston -4.5 (-102); moneyline -183
Total: 214.5 (-106 over, -106 under)
The Wizards handle expectations to advance, but the jury is still on
The Washington Wizards beat the Atlanta Hawks 115-99 to break free from the first round match-up, winning the series 4-2. This was the first and the only time either side won on the road, which is not all that surprising as the Wizards have played much better at home during the regular season as well. They did what they were expected to do, but did not overly impress as the opponent was rather weak. It was obvious that they are the team to lose the series as they’ve had the best player in the series, a more balanced team and a better game plan.
Probably the biggest unknown from the series with a Atlanta was their seemingly improved defense. One of the worst defensive teams in the postseason, the Washington Wizards were able to keep the Hawks out of their paint more as the series progressed, but it still won’t mean much unless they’ll be able to replicate the effort and the focus against much more offensively capable team as the Celtics certainly are.
Two teams faced off four times during the regular season, without any road wins. Neither of the home wins was particularly close, so the Washington Wizards will have to change their mindset a bit after the first round where all they needed to do was to protect their home court. Game 1 is probably as good of a chance as they’ll get, so expect them to try to establish themselves as the aggressor early on, despite playing as an away team.
It’s no secret who fuels this team. John Wall has averaged 29.5 points and 10.3 assists in the first round, increasing his own scoring duties as he and his back-court partner Bradley Beal did most of the scoring for the Wizards to take advantage of the favorable match-ups. Beal’s playoffs scoring is also up to 25.9 ppg, while all the other players from the rotation failed to match their regular season averages. Porter, Morris and Gortat took turns in showing up, while the bench was not awful most of the series, which is actually quite a success for them.
Place: TD Garden, Boston, Massachusetts
Date/Time: Sunday April 30th, 2017. 1:00 PM ET
TV Coverage: ABC, ESPN
Boston struggle early on but win four straight to advance past Bulls
After a disappointing start that saw the Celtics lose both of the game in Boston, it has been all survival mode for the Eastern Conference top seed. Still, with a bit of luck, some settled emotions and mostly due to large talent disparity, the quest for the best is still very much alive in the triumphant city.
Just like their next opponents, the Celtics have not impressed in the first round as the opposition was not on the same level, especially not after the Bulls lost Rondo after the first two game to an injury. They get a pass for having to go through hard times due to personal tragedy in their leading scorer’s family, but will likely need to elevate some aspect of their game to be considered as a serious contender.
Number one on the list – defensive rebounding. The Celtics have not been a great rebounding team entire season, but this shouldn’t be acceptable as an excuse for a terrible job they did on the boards in three of the 6 games against Chicago. They’ll likely revert to the usual starting lineup with Amir Johnson instead of Gerald Green, so they will not give up height against the Wizards – they still need to focus on boxing out to finish the defense. They were on and off in that department as well, especially with the second unit, but will have no free passes against more potent and diverse Washington offense.
The Wizards double threat on the guard position poses a match-up nightmare as they won’t be able to hide Isaiah Thomas on defense. He’s too bad of a defender to stay with Wall and gives up much height to Beal, so watch the Celtics switch a lot and potentially putting Thomas on Porter. It would create some cross matches that would open more lanes in transition, a thing neither of teams would back off.
Thomas’ offense could suffer due to increased defensive workload. He hasn’t had a particularly great first round series. He was mentally absent in the first two games and his 3-pt shot abandoned him later, so he scored just 23 points per contest, 6 below the season average. He has hit the three with just 20 percent success rate, while taking 7.5 long shots per night.
The Celtics were able to run great deal of their offensive possessions through center Al Horford, who dismantled the Bulls with his great decision making and versatile abilities. He had 15.3 points, 8.5 rebounds and 6.5 assists and shot 60 percent from the field. Bradley found his offense late in the series to up his postseason average to 16 points per game, mostly thanks to knocking the three ball more frequently. Crowder, Smart, Olynyk and Green rounded up the regular rotation, each one having up and down games. Talented rookie Jaylen Brown has seen his playing time decrease significantly.
Washington Wizards at Boston Celtics Game 1 Trends & Prediction
The Washington Wizards have split the postseason ATS score in the first round. Overall, they are 45-42-1 against the spread, but play below expectations on the road, where they are 20-23-1 this season. High scoring, up-tempo team that plays no defense is a good recipe for overs and the Wizards delivered there. They went 54-33-1 against the over/under overall and 28-15 as a visiting team. All the six first round games ended close to the projected line, but even like that, the Wizards overs still paid off with a 3-2-1 record.
The Celtics matched straight up wins and losses with the spread ones, and have split the total points results in the series with Chicago. This also give them four straight ATS wins that improved their season record of 44-42-2. They are a strong home team this season, but this hasn’t translated to a good ATS score as the bookies overplayed their home court advantage. The Celtics are just 18-26 ATS at home. Still, most of the failed covers happened when they were heavily favored. They are 2-13 ATS when laying 8 or more points. Boston like to push the tempo with opportunity, but also play solid defense, so it didn’t translate to an over/under edge on either side. They are 42-42-4 on the total points market this season, with overs slightly more likely in TD Garden, where they went 24-18.
Judging by the first game setting, the bookmakers view two teams pretty evenly matched up. This is a fair assessment. The Washington Wizards have the edge in the back-court and Horford gives the Celtics an advantage in the post. The benches are equally bad and the role players usually don’t play larger than the actual roles. I’ve set the Boston at -5 for the first game, so there’s nothing init for me on the handicap betting, but I’m going to roll with the overs. The tempo will increase significantly and there are more than one match-up that favors the offense on both sides. Second unit will be able to score on each other too. My projection has the number of 218 for this game, which is a bit tight on the over value, but since there are a lot of positives for the plus points, I’m going to take it while I can as the books will quickly adjust in the following games.
My Pick: Pass
Total: Over 214.5 points (-106)
