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NBA Preview: Southwest Division

The San Antonio Spurs tightened their grasp on the Southwest division with a 67-win season that was largely overlooked because of the Golden State Warriors’ dominance and their own playoff disappointment. However, the Spurs’ 25-game margin over the Dallas Mavericks represented the largest gap between the top two teams in any division in the NBA last season. San Antonio reloaded in the offseason with the intention of contending for a championship in their first season without Tim Duncan and that long road begins with clinching the best record in their division once again. There were a lot of personnel changes in the Southwest Division as teams tried to close the gap, but it’s unlikely anyone did enough to displace the Spurs out of the top spot.

Here is a look at what to expect in the NBA Southwest division this season.

Winner: San Antonio Spurs

The Spurs couldn’t convince Duncan to come back for one more year but it might work out in their favor after they convinced Pau Gasol to take his spot on their roster. Duncan clearly showed his age towards the end of last season and in the playoffs, so Gasol could represent a small upgrade at the position – at least on the offensive end. It should also embolden Kawhi Leonard and LaMarcus Aldridge to be more aggressive as the most talented players on this team. San Antonio also lost Boris Diaw and David West, but they brought in Gasol, David Lee and rookie Dejounte Murray. They might not hit 67 wins again this season but look for the Spurs to maintain a double-digit margin over the rest of the division. With the best head coach (Gregg Popovich) and the most complete roster in the division, they’ll be hard to knock off their pedestal.

Biggest Surprise: Memphis Grizzlies

Memphis is coming off a disappointing season in which they were severely plagued by injuries, but there is reason for optimism moving forward. The Grizzlies convinced Mike Conley Jr. to return to the fold and that move allowed them to lock up Chandler Parsons to a four-year deal. Parsons in particular was a good find as the Grizzlies have long been trying to fill their small forward position. He brings much-needed three-point shooting with him as the Grizzlies were one of the worst from beyond the arc last season. They tried all sorts of players like Lance Stephenson and Jeff Green, but Parsons should be the best fit.

Marc Gasol and Zach Randolph are an elite frontcourt tandem while Tony Allen and rookie Wade Baldwin IV should provide some solid backcourt production in secondary roles. There are a lot of people overlooking the Grizzlies after last year’s misfortune but improved depth and better fortune should lead to a bounce back season in 2016-17. They probably aren’t good enough to compete with a team like Golden State in a seven-game series (not many teams are) but the Grizzlies could once again push for 50 wins if everything goes their way.

Biggest Disappointment: New Orleans Pelicans

The Pelicans were also hit hard by injuries last year when they finished at the bottom of the Southwest division with just 30 wins. That comes on the heels of a season that was very positive for the Pelicans when they had qualified for the playoffs.

Many people are expecting a rebound, but New Orleans will have a tough time climbing out of the division basement this season thanks to each of the other four Southwest teams improving – at least on paper. Rookie first-round pick Buddy Hield appears to be a potential star in the making but the Pelicans did little else to upgrade their backcourt with Langston Galloway, E’Twaun Moore and Lance Stephenson their other additions. Those aren’t exactly moves that move the needle and don’t forget that they lost power forward Ryan Anderson and shooting guard Eric Gordon.

New Orleans is led by one of the best young centers in the NBA in Anthony Davis but they haven’t done enough to surround him with adequate talent and that should result in another disappointing season for the Pelicans.

Written by Geoff Harvey

Geoff Harvey has been creating odds and betting models since his days in the womb, just don't ask him how he used to get his injury reports back then. Harvey contributes a wealth of quality and informational content that is a valuable resource for any handicapper.

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