The #3 Baylor Bears are back in the Tournament as the high seed, but the previous two rides have ended prematurely. Their first obstacle this year, and a tough one too, is the WAC champion, the #14 New Mexico State Aggies. The Bears will have to break out of the recent slump to avoid third consecutive first round exit.
Place: Bank of Oklahoma Center, Tulsa, Oklahoma
Date/Time: Friday March 17th, 2017. 12:40 PM ET
TV Coverage: truTV
#3 Baylor Bears vs. #14 New Mexico State Aggies
LINE: Baylor -12.5 (-102)
Total: 134.5 points (-105 over, -106 under)
Will the past haunt the Bears?
The Baylor Bears (25-7) had a good season that can’t be undone by a Big 12 quarterfinal exit to Kansas State, but they are struggling at the bad time. The Bears dropped four of their last seven games. One of the vital Bears’ players, guard Manu Lecomte, suffered an ankle injury in January and played through the pain until the Bears finally realized that they need him to heal – he missed a couple of games at the season’s end and should be close to 100% for this game. But let’s not forget that the Bears started the season 15-0 and reached No. 1 in the AP poll in early January, before Lecomte’s injury. The Bears are motivated not to be upset again and will not overlook another double digit seed.
The Bears go as their best player goes. Although Johnathan Motley can take over the games by himself, the Bears are more than a single star team. The whole rotation is contributing. Four players average at least 9 points and another 5 players score between 4.5 and 7 per game. They are very deep and well coached. They don’t stand out in any offensive category, except maybe by sharing the rock, and have averaged 72.7 points in the regular season. Their defense is their strong suit. The Bears are top 20 nationwide in both opponent FG% (.398) and points allowed (62.7 ppg), a great feat when you consider the level of the competition they’ve faced.
Raised level could be difficult for the Aggies to overcome
A strong showing in the conference tourney where they won three games by double digits got the New Mexico State Aggies (28-5) back where they belong. The Aggies did lose only 5 games, but three of them happened since February 9th, and the names of the schools that beat them wouldn’t strike fear to most of the 64 teams competing. The only good team they’ve faced all year was Arizona State, whom they’ve beaten. Baylor will be the toughest opponent they have faced all season.
Looking at the Aggies numbers, they are a solid team – yet again, this is comparing to the mid- and low- major competition. They’ve scored 78.9 points per game and allowed 67.2, so they play both sides. The Aggies were especially successful in defending the three point line, as they held opponents to .291 shooting from outside the arc, the 4th best in the country. Offensively, the Aggies don’t match well with the Bears. They don’t have a decent three-point game so they take the most of their shots inside. However, Baylor is very good defending the interior and the Aggies’ players will quickly learn that having fewest shots blocked in the NCAA means nothing when you play such a weak schedule.
#3 Baylor Bears vs. #14 New Mexico State Aggies Game Trends & Prediction
The Baylor Bears score against the spread of 13-14 isn’t too impressive, but they were rarely an underdog this season. The drop off in mid February has also cost them 4 consecutive ATS losses. They are more of a under team (10-16-1), but have seen total line fall to low 130s recently, so the market seems to have caught up.
Betting opportunities on NMSU games were rare and they went 3-2 ATS and 2-3 against the O/U.
There are few things bugging me about the Bears. Subpar recent performances, average offense, injuries to Lecomte and Motley (dislocated finger), but it’s all minor. The Aggies aren’t on the same level and the favorite will comfortably advance. The spread is set with too much respect to the regular season results and I believe the Bears will be able to beat it. I’m not very sure about the overs as I believe the Aggies will struggle to score on Bears, but the total line holds some value so I’m picking the over as well.
My Pick: Baylor -12.5
Total: Over 134.5 points
