The Duke Blue Devils surprised everyone in college football last season by winning their first ACC Coastal Division championship and making the ACC Championship Game before losing to eventual national champion Florida State. The team took a three-possession lead over Texas A&M in the Chick-Fil-A Bowl before blowing that lead in the second half. The loss stung, but the message had still been sent: Duke football is not what it once was. It must now be taken very seriously.
Strengths
The Blue Devils are going to be a very good passing team this season. This all starts with head coach David Cutcliffe, a great teacher of the passing game and Peyton Manning’s collegiate mentor at the University of Tennessee two decades ago. Cutcliffe molds quarterbacks, and with Anthony Boone returning for one more year at Duke, Coach Cut has a veteran who should be able to thrive within the Blue Devils’ offensive system. Boone has experienced wide receivers to throw to, enabling the Blue Devils to do in 2014 what they did to Texas A&M for most of the Chick-Fil-A Bowl. Duke’s offense established a great rhythm, and that should be expected yet again. The key question is if the running game can supplement the passing game, but if the passing game is so good that opponents can’t really learn to contain it, Duke should be able to set up the running game in due time and get defenses way off balance.
On defense, the secondary returns mostly intact, and that should be a plus for this team, which needed at least some continuity on defense. On special teams, punter Will Monday, who has been one of the best in the country at his position for each of the past two seasons, will come back for another season to give Duke a field position advantage.
Weaknesses
The Blue Devils lost a lot of quality and depth in the offseason. When Boone didn’t play last year, Brandon Connette came in as a change-of-pace quarterback, usually to run the ball a little more on read-option plays. Connette transferred to Fresno State to be with his family, so the Blue Devils know that if Boone gets injured, they’re in a very tough spot. They have to keep Boone healthy. In pursuit of more health for Boone, though, Duke must replace two starters on its offensive line, which could very well turn out to be an issue. Running back is also a concern, so the whole offense seen last season is anything but fully intact. The passing game is there, but the offensive line and running game are question marks.
On defense, the Blue Devils lost two of their better defensive ends from last season, so the pass rush is something that Cutcliffe and his staff can’t quite rely upon at the beginning of the year. That position will have to develop as the year goes on.
Schedule
The Blue Devils are not in trouble in terms of a bowl game. They play a lot of cupcakes in September and should be 4-0 heading into their ACC schedule. Duke is at Miami and at Georgia Tech for its opening ACC games. If the Blue Devils can split those games, they should feel good about the rest of the season. If Duke is in contention for another division title, the November stretch of Virginia Tech and North Carolina, both at home within six days of each other, will probably decide the division.
Outlook
The Blue Devils will probably go 5-3 in the division, but if they beat the right teams, especially Virginia Tech on Nov. 15, they’ll win a tiebreaker and play for the ACC title. The schedule is soft enough that nine wins are a reasonable expectation.
Pick: Over 8.5 at +140
