The North Carolina Tar Heels always seem to be the kind of team that has a really high ceiling, but falls to the floor for much of each subsequent season. Can the Tar Heels be steadily good this year and not go through an extended rough patch? That’s the question everyone is asking in the Coastal Division of the Atlantic Coast Conference, because if North Carolina isn’t a team with a split personality, it could win its division and make a lot of noise.
Strengths
The Tar Heels struggled in the first half of last season with Bryn Renner at quarterback, but after Renner got injured, Marquise Williams filled in, and the team took off from there. Williams immediately gained a noticeable groove as the leader of the North Carolina offense. Running and passing, he made instinctively good decisions in a strong majority of situations. He was able to run well enough to keep defenses off balance. He provided a dual-threat capability that injected life into the Tar Heels. His contributions flowed throughout the rest of the offense. The other players on the offense seemed to pick up his energy and the feeling of confidence that went with it. If Williams can now play a full season the way he played the back end of 2013, the Tar Heels should be in good shape as long as their defense doesn’t collapse.
Weaknesses
Ah yes, the defense. This is where North Carolina could really fall short in the coming season. The Tar Heels were destroyed for much of the first half of last season, and while they stabilized in the second half, they did allow too many big plays to Duke’s offense in a late-season contest that meant a lot to the program. North Carolina’s pass rush was not anything to write home about last season. The Tar Heels have to be much better along the defensive line, making opposing ACC quarterbacks feel uneasy enough to make mistakes in the heat of competition. If North Carolina can’t create havoc with its front four, the offense might have to average 40 points a game in conference play.
Schedule
The Tar Heels have some medium-level challenges in their non-conference schedule. They host San Diego State, a team that could contend for the Mountain West title this season. Getting that game at home should give them a slight advantage. North Carolina then visits East Carolina, a team that has moved from Conference USA to the American Athletic Conference. East Carolina has given North Carolina problems in the recent past. The Pirates beat the Tar Heels, 55-31, last season. North Carolina then moves into ACC play, with a road game at Clemson being a nasty way to get things started. A visit to Notre Dame won’t be a walk in the park, but the possibility of four Irish suspensions to starters could give the Tar Heels a crucial edge. Road trips to Miami and Duke in November are probably going to make the difference between a division title and a 7-5 season.
Outlook
The Tar Heels should win more than eight games, but this is a program that normally doesn’t do exactly what it should. The frustrating nature of North Carolina football means the under is a good bet in the regular season.
Pick: Under 8.5 at -150
