The Baylor Bears (+7) are heading neutral to battle their conference counterpart Texas Tech Red Raiders at AT&T Stadium. This Saturday daytime matchup is scheduled to kick off at 12:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to FS1.
Baylor Bears at Texas Tech Red Raiders Betting Preview
In this Saturday Big 12 matchup, Texas Tech is tabbed as the favorite and the team’s currently giving up 7 points. In order to take the home favorite, moneyline bettors would currently have to wager $300 to win $100 back on the Red Raiders (-300). The Bears are getting +220 moneyline odds. Vegas has placed the over/under (O/U) at 65 points, and it appears that there could be multiple decent live betting opportunities while the game is taking place.
The Bears are 5-6 against the spread (ATS) and have lost 0.5 units so far. The team has recorded an Over-Under mark of 5-5. The Red Raiders are up 1.9 units this season. The team is 6-5 ATS and the over has hit in eight of its games.
The Bears have gone 5-6 straight up (SU), including 3-5 SU against conference opponents. The Red Raiders are 5-6 SU overall and are also 3-5 SU in conference play.
The Bears fell to TCU 16-9 in a contest where the passing attack wasn’t where it needed to be as Charlie Brewer completed just 14-of-29 passes for 163 yards and one interception. Brewer (54 rushing yards on 18 attempts, one TD) also mounted the running attack and was complemented by John Lovett (55 yards on 11 carries). Jalen Hurd (four receptions, 68 yards) and Trestan Ebner (three catches, 26 yards) shared the receiving duties in the defeat.
Texas Tech most-recently dropped a 21-6 game to Kansas State. Jett Duffey completed 19-of-27 passes for 150 yards and one interception. Da’Leon Ward (34 rushing yards on 10 attempts) and the signal-caller Duffey (-8 yards on 10 carries) led the running game as T.J. Vasher (six receptions, 69 yards) and Antoine Wesley (six catches, 28 yards) led the pass-catching corps in the loss.
Baylor has run the ball on 49.1 percent of its offensive possessions this year while Texas Tech has an overall rush percentage of 45.0 percent. The Bears have run for 159 yards/game (including 154 per game versus Big 12 opponents) and have 19 touchdowns on the ground this year. The Red Raiders are putting up 136 rushing yards per game (121 in conference) and have 25 total rush TDs.
It seems like the Red Raiders ought to have an advantage in the trenches. Their offensive line has yielded only 23 sacks while their D-line has registered 25 sacks. The Bears offensive line has allowed 34 sacks and their defense has created only 21 sacks.
The Bears offense has tallied 280 yards/game through the air overall (262 per game against conference opposition) and has 17 passing scores so far. The Red Raiders have recorded a superb 362 pass yards per game (329.8 in the Big 12) and have 26 total pass TDs.
On the defensive side of the ball, Baylor should have the upper hand when it comes to limiting the pass. The team has allowed 182 rush yards and 238 pass yards per game. The Texas Tech defense has given up 286.5 yards per game to opposing passers and 159.7 yards per game to opposing runners. Both teams allow similar adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) to the opposition, as the Bears have given up an ANY/A of 7.43 to opposing QBs, while the Red Raiders are yielding an ANY/A of 7.04.
Passing-wise, Brewer is up to 2,039 yards this year, and has connected on 59 percent of his 290 attempts with 12 scores through the air and seven interceptions. He has a 5.72 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 5.77 over the last two outings.
We expect the Baylor offense to mix it up in this one. Jalen Hurd (163 rushing yards, three rush TDs, 824 receiving yards, four receiving touchdowns on the year), Charlie Brewer (126 rush yards, five rush TDs, 36 receiving yards) and Trestan Ebner (255 rush yards, 192 receiving yards) have each played significant roles lately.
In the other huddle, Jett Duffey has connected on 67-of-107 passes for 777 yards, four TDs and five INTs. Duffey’s ANY/A sits at 5.01 for the season and 6.59 over his past two games.
Antoine Wesley (1,204 receiving yards, seven receiving touchdowns this season), T.J. Vasher (539 receiving yards, five receiving TDs) and Da’Leon Ward (225 rush yards, three rush TDs, 148 receiving yards, one receiving TD) have combined to account for 507 total yards and four touchdowns over the last two games.
These two teams met last year with the final outcome being a 38-24 victory for Texas Tech.
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Notes
Team Betting Notes
The Texas Tech D has tallied 25 sacks on the year while Baylor has 21.
Texas Tech has lost seven fumbles in 2018 while Baylor has let six get away.
The Bears offense has created five pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Red Raiders have put up 12 such plays.
The Baylor defense has allowed 12 pass plays of 40+ yards, while Texas Tech has given up 13 such plays.
The Baylor offense has created 10 rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while Texas Tech has created 11 such runs.
The Bears defense has allowed 23 rushing plays of 20 yards or more, while the Red Raiders have given up 16 such runs.
The O/U for Texas Tech’s previous game was set at 55.5. The under cashed in the 21-6 defeat to Kansas State.
In its last three contests, Texas Tech is 1-2 ATS and the over cashed in two of those three.
In its last three matches, Baylor is 2-1 ATS and the under cashed in each of those three.
Baylor has lost five of its last six games SU, with a four-point victory over Oklahoma State on November 3rd accounting for the only win over that stretch.
The O/U for Baylor’s previous game was set at 49. The under cashed in the team’s 16-9 defeat to TCU.
Baylor has averaged 4.8 yards per rush attempt across its past three games and 4.0 over its last two.
Texas Tech has averaged 3.2 yards per carry over its last three outings and 2.9 over its past two.
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