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NCAA Football Free Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes at TCU Horned Frogs

Tim Heitman-USA TODAY Sports

The No. 15 TCU Horned Frogs (+13) are ready to welcome the No. 4 Ohio State Buckeyes (-13) to AT&T Stadium in Arlington, Texas. The game will get underway at 8:00 p.m. ET and fans can catch the action by tuning in to ABC.

Ohio State Buckeyes at TCU Horned Frogs Betting Preview

In this Saturday matchup, Ohio State is projected as the heavy favorite and is currently giving up 13 points. The Buckeyes are also receiving -550 moneyline odds while the Horned Frogs are +375. Should one side finds paydirt early, it will likely create a nice betting scenario in-game.

The line opened at 10 and the public has been hammering the Buckeyes.

The Buckeyes are 2-0 against the spread (ATS) and have gained 0.0 units so far in 2018. The team’s posted an O/U record of 1-1. The Horned Frogs have gained 0.0 units this season. The team is 1-1 ATS and has an O/U record of 0-1.

The Buckeyes are 2-0 straight up (SU) in 2018 while the Horned Frogs are also 2-0 SU.

The Buckeyes are looking to stay undefeated following a 52-3 win over Rutgers last week. The D did its part in the win, holding the Scarlet Knights to just 65 passing yards and 69 yards on the ground. Raheem Blackshear had a productive day for the Scarlet Knights in that one with 31 rushing yards on nine attempts. On the offensive side of the ball, the Buckeyes completed 30-of-33 passes for 354 yards and five touchdowns. Dwayne Haskins went 20-for-23 for 233 yards and four touchdowns while Tate Martell completed 10-of-10 for 121 yards and one touchdown. J.K. Dobbins (73 yards on 12 rush attempts, one TD) and Tate Martell (95 yards on eight carries, one TD) led the running attack while Parris Campbell (five receptions, 64 yards, one TD) and K.J. Hill (five catches, 25 yards) handled the receiving duties in the win.

TCU is coming off of a 42-12 win over SMU. The defense let the Mustangs run for 131 yards on 33 rush attempts, along with one rushing TD. Braeden West had a good showing in the loss, recording 78 rushing yards and a score on 11 attempts for SMU. For TCU, Shawn Robinson completed 15-of-28 passes for 146 yards, one touchdown and one interception. Sewo Olonilua (59 yards on 11 rush attempts) and Darius Anderson (69 yards on 9 carries) spearheaded the running game as KaVontae Turpin (four receptions, 64 yards, one TD) and Jalen Reagor (three catches, 45 yards) led the pass-catching attack in the win.

In terms of offensive play-calling, each squad sports a remarkably similar (58-42) run-pass ratio on the season. The Buckeyes have rushed for 300 yards/game and have seven touchdowns on the ground this year. The Horned Frogs are logging 241 rush yards per game and have five total rushing TDs.

The Buckeyes offense has tallied a ridiculous 350 yards per game through the air overall and has 10 passing TDs so far. The Horned Frogs have produced 205 pass yards per contest and have five total pass scores.

Defensively, Ohio State has allowed opponents to run for an average of 133 yards and pass for 131 yards per game. The TCU D has allowed 106 yards per game to opposing passers and 107.5 yards per game on the ground. The Horned Frogs are giving up an adjusted net yards per pass attempt (ANY/A) of only 1.63 to opponents, while the Buckeyes have allowed a 2.26 ANY/A.

Offensively, Haskins has amassed 233 passing yards this year. He’s completed 20-of-23 attempts with four passing scores and has yet to throw an interception. He has a pristine 12.71 adjusted net yards per pass attempt, including 12.46 over the last two games.

The Buckeyes have tried to maintain tempo by putting the ball into the hands of their running backs. Along with Terry McLaurin (51 yards, one TD), Mike Weber (31 rush yards) and J.K. Dobbins (73 rush yards, one rush TD) have been significant focal points in the Ohio State offensive scheme.

Shawn Robinson has managed to complete 15-of-28 passes for 146 yards, one TD and one INT for TCU. His ANY/A stands at an ultra-pedestrian 4.32 for the year and 6.98 over his past two outings.

The Horned Frogs also like to rely on their backfield. In addition to KaVontae Turpin (64 receiving yards, one receiving TD), Shawn Robinson (67 rush yards, one rush TD) and Jalen Reagor (eight rush yards, 45 receiving yards) have gotten plenty of looks lately.

Free Pick: Ohio State Buckeyes at TCU Horned Frogs

SU Winner – Ohio State, ATS Winner – Ohio State

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Notes

Betting Trends

The Buckeyes offense has tallied three pass plays of 40 or more yards, while the Horned Frogs have put up two such plays.

The Ohio State defense has allowed one pass play of 40 yards or more, while TCU has given up two such plays.

The Ohio State offense has created seven rushing plays of 20 or more yards, while TCU has created two such run.

The Buckeyes defense has allowed three rushing plays of 20+ yards, while the Horned Frogs have given up one such run.

The Ohio State defensive unit has sacked opposing quarterbacks eight times this season. TCU has recorded seven sacks.

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Written by GMS Previews

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