Both teams have enjoyed their best runs recently and the match-up between the Big 12 champions, Iowa State, and the Mountain West best team, Nevada Wolf Pack promises to be a good one. The Cyclones can enjoy the proximity of the game location, but no team who hasn’t played in 10 years in the Tournament will travel as tourists. The Wolf Pack know these opportunities don’t arise too often for a small school, so they’ll be hungry for success and nationwide exposure.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Thursday March 16th, 2017. 09:57 PM ET
TV Coverage: truTV
#5 Iowa State Cyclones vs. #12 Nevada Wolf Pack
LINE: Iowa State -6 (-105)
Total: 155.5 points (-110 over, -103 under)
Monte Morris orchestrating top offense
The Iowa State Cyclones (23-10) are a veteran-laden team. They’ve won their conference tournaments in three of the last four years and are peaking in form at just the right time, winning nine of their last ten games. Their senior point guard Monte Morris leads the team in scoring and assists without ever turning the ball over. None of the Cyclones players will shy away from launching a shot, as three players average more than 10 field goals attempts per game – Morris, Mitrou-Long and Burton.
The Iowa State Cyclones have scored 80.9 points per game on 47% shooting from the field and 40% shooting from behind the arc. Defensively, the Cyclones allow 72.0 points to their opponents, while forcing them to commit 14.4 turnovers per game. They take and make a lot of three pointers, and also possess the quality to find good shots. They are a bit undersized, but are fast and athletic. Monte Morris is averaging 16.3 points, 4.8 boards and 6.1 assists per game. Nazareth Mitrou-Long is just behind with 15.5 points per game and 4.7 boards.
The Wolf Pack playing the mismatch game
The Nevada Wolf Pack (28-6) earned the automatic bid by winning the Mountain West conference. They play a very similar style to their first round opponent as most teams don’t want to get into a shootout with Pack. In addition, the Wolf Pack excel with a small lineup, led by a senior guard Marcus Marshall. They aren’t going to the NCAA Tournament simply to participate. Coach Musselman wants his team to make some noise and they feel that the Cyclones are a good draw for them.
Thanks to PF Jordan Caroline’s ability to play much above his actual size, the Wolf Pack will go even smaller than the Cyclones, creating mismatches with 5 small players and look to force opponents out of their defensive schemes. They’ve scored 80.0 points per game and allow 70.9. On top of that, the Wolf Pack are surprisingly efficient rebounding team with Caroline and Oliver averaging 9 rebounds per game and Elijah Foster adding another 7.5. Rebounds are half-talent and half-effort, and the Wolf Pack have both.
Cameron Oliver is putting up 15.8 points per game, along with 8.7 rebounds, while Marcus Marshall leads the Pack in scoring with 19.8 points in 35 minutes of play.
#5 Iowa State Cyclones vs. #12 Nevada Wolf Pack Game Trends & Prediction
The Iowa State Cyclones have covered the spread in 8 of their last 10 games, propelling their season record to 18-12. They’ve gone the same way against the O/U, beating the projected line 9 consecutive times.
If you think that’s a straight forward trend, take a look at the Wolf Pack. They’ve covered the spread 9 times in a row, each one as a 5-9.5 points favorite. This led to 23-10-1 ATS record for the season. 6 of their 7 last games have gone to over, and they finished with 18-14-2 season score.
This is going to be an exciting game to watch as both teams like to get up and down the court. The line opened at -6.5, but the smart money has already pushed it down. No side has draw the majority of the public, but the overs is a very popular choice. Can’t argue with that, as I expected a 160+ line, so go with the high points. The spread seems to be well set. I initially liked the Cyclones here, they’ll have a strong support and are much more experienced in these situations, and the Wolf Pack are similar team, but just a little worse than the Cyclones, but the odds are just not there. I’d take them on -5.5 +100, so I’ll continue to monitor the movement closer to the game.
My Pick: (Iowa State -5.5 +100)
Total: Over 155.5 points
