The fourth seeded Butler Bulldogs will face another mid-major team after disposing Winthrop in the first round, but the Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders aren’t just your average No. 12 who upset the higher seed. In fact, the Blue Raiders were favored to advance and they did so in a convincing fashion. The winner of this game will buy a ticket for Memphis next week and the likely matchup with the North Carolina.
Place: BMO Harris Bradley Center, Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Date/Time: Saturday March 18th, 2017. 07:10 PM ET
TV Coverage: TBS
#4 Butler Bulldogs vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders
LINE: Butler Bulldogs -4 (-106)
Total: 140 points (-105 over, -108 under)
Butler convincing in the first game
The Butler Bulldogs (24-8) showed why they have been awarded such a high seed with an easy 76-64 win over the Winthrop Eagles. The only scare the Bulldogs have experienced in this game was when their leader in scoring and rebounding this season, Kelan Martin, briefly went down to what appeared to be a knee injury. Martin returned to the game shortly after.
The Bulldogs won by playing Butler basketball. They were looking for the good shots and hit them with usual high efficiency (49% from the field, 8-19 on threes) and attacked the basket to earn 30 free throw attempts. They’ve also shut down Winthrop in the first half, building themselves a nice lead and cruise through the second half. Avery Woodson paced them with 6 three pointers, 5 in the first half, before Chrabascz (12p, 4r) and Martin (10p, 8r) took over to close the game. Physically superior, the Bulldogs controlled the paint, forcing contested shots and cleaning up the boards.
Their next opponent will be tougher to break as the Blue Raiders play more compact defense, but don’t expect surprises from Butler – they’ll stay true to how they’ve played so far.
The Blue Raiders are aiming for some recognition
The Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders (31-4) have advanced to the second round again, beating another Big Ten team and showing that they do belong at the Big Dance. They also left little doubt in which the better team is, gradually building a 17-point lead over the Minnesota Golden Gophers and holding off any comeback attempts. The Bluer Raiders relentlessly attacked the paint and quickly put the Minnesota bigs in foul trouble while also hitting a great percentage of their outside shots (7-13 on threes).
Senior forward Reggie Upshaw led the way with 19 points and 9 rebounds for the Blue Raiders, but others weren’t far behind. 7 players scored at least two baskets, four of them finishing in double digits. Mostly recognized as a strong defensive team, they didn’t exactly stop the Golden Gophers. They forced only 8 turnovers and allowed Minnesota to shoot 46.2% from the field for 72 points. This needs to change if they plan to advance past Butler.
#4 Butler Bulldogs vs. #12 Middle Tennessee State Blue Raiders Game Trends & Prediction
Butler played well in the last game but only covered by a single point, as they’ve done so many times this season. They don’t blow out teams, but have overall provided good value for the money, going 18-12 ATS. The under in the last game, marks the third consecutive under after 5 overs. The Bulldogs are 14-14-2 against the over/under for the season.
Middle Tennessee State won their 11th consecutive game and they scored above 80 points in 5 straight, 4 of which have gone to over. For the season, they have records of 24-10 ATS and 14-20 against the over under. The game against Butler is the first time they are an underdog since December and they’ve covered in 5 straight games.
Middle Tennessee State already found national spotlight and it’s not very surprising that the public sees them as a value bet, but this time I don’t agree. Butler is much stronger than Minnesota and I don’t think Blue Raiders can stop them with sheer determination. I’m picking Butler -4 in this matchup and I’m positive that’s where the smart money will be. I’m also liking the over points. Mid Tennessee are in good form offensively and won’t back down from the challenge, but won’t be able to stop the methodic Bulldogs’ offense.
My Pick: Butler -4
Total: Over 140 points
