The college basketball season has hit the NCAA Tournament. Many people think the first round on Thursday and Friday is the most exciting two-day period of the whole sports year. Let’s see what information can be gathered from this first round and whether it leads to the second round for teams in certain situations.
At Least One Team Seeded 1-4 Loses In The First Round
This is a product of the fact that all four top seeds in all four regions have survived the first round only four times in history, and not since 2006. At least one of the top 16 teams (a top-four seed) usually goes down. Most of the higher seeds advance, but getting 100 percent of them through the first round without a loss is a very rare event.
First-Time Teams In The Tournament Only Occasionally Escape The First Weekend
This is the point which relates to Northwestern, a team making its first NCAA Tournament appearance and which is seeded eighth. Since 1985, seven teams have been seeded 10 or higher when making their first-ever NCAA Tournament appearance. Only one of those teams, Florida in 1987, won two games to get to the Sweet 16 and the second weekend of the tournament. In order for Northwestern to win twice and reach the Sweet 16, it will almost certainly have to beat top-seeded Gonzaga in the second round.
Teams With Losing Conference Records Generally Struggle
Only five of 35 teams to make the NCAA Tournament with a losing conference record have won two games in the same NCAA Tournament. Teams with losing conference record are 18-17 in the first round of the tournament. This does not include the First Four in Dayton, where Kansas State (8-10 in the Big 12) beat Wake Forest on Tuesday night.
First Four Bubble Game Winners Often Win In The First Round
This is a statistic which is based on the creation of the First Four in 2011, when the tournament moved to 68 teams from 65 the previous few years. The First Four is a collection of four games. Two of them involve number 16 seeds from the very small schools, while two other games involve bubble teams which just barely got into the tournament field, either as an 11 seed or a number 12 seed. In these First Four “bubble games” between the 11 or 12 seeds, one of them has then won its round of 64 game (first round game) each of the six years the First Four has existed. From 2011 through 2016, at least one bubble team from the First Four won its first round game and reached the second round. Kansas State or the winner of Wednesday’s Providence-USC bubble game will both try to keep this streak going.
The Data On Number 3 Seeds Against Number 14 Seeds
The 3-14 upset has become more common in recent years. From 2013 through 2016, number three seeds have lost five times. That’s more times than from 2000 through 2012 combined. A lot of people think Florida State could lose to Florida Gulf Coast in the 3-14 upset this season. Baylor against 14th-seeded New Mexico State is another possibility.
As a point of comparison, number two seeds have lost eight times in all of history against number 15 seeds. The past four years have been very dangerous for three seeds against No. 14 seeds.
No No. 1 Seed Has Ever Lost To A No. 16 Seed But…
In case you were wondering, no No. 1 seed has ever lost to a No. 16 seed in the history of the NCAA Tournament. Is that going to change this year? Well, anything is possible. However, what is much more possible is that these No. 16 seeds cover the spread. Over the past four tournaments, No. 16 seeds are 10-6 ATS. One thing to keep in mind is the point spread. If the No. 1 seed is favored by 19.5 or less, they are 7-1 ATS over the last 10 seasons and 14-5 overall.
No. 4 Seeds Thrive
In recent years, No. 4 seeds have been one of the safest bets as they are 11-1 straight up in the last three seasons. They are only 5-7 ATS in that stretch, though. Since 2012, No. 4 seeds favored by 7.5 or less are just 2-5-1 ATS with three outright losses, so keep that in mind.
Click here to bet on the NCAA Tournament futures for the 2017 college basketball season right now. DSI has all of the latest lines, spreads and props for this week’s madness!
