The Iowa State Cyclones head to Boone Pickens Stadium to face the No. 21 Oklahoma State Cowboys in Stillwater this Saturday, with kickoff set for 12:00pm ET. BetDSI has the Cowboys as a 17.5 point favorite, with the Over/Under at 65.
Comparing Resumes
Oklahoma State (3-1) and Iowa State (1-3) seem to be heading in opposite directions at this point in the season. The Cowboys entered the season with lots of questions to be answered, mainly due to key defensive losses, and also being the 2nd youngest team in all of the FBS. Their strong effort in a 37-31 loss to Florida State to open the season showed that they had essentially reloaded at various positions and could perhaps challenge for a Big 12 title.
In their next game Daxx Garman stepped in for an injured J.W. Walsh at quarterback and led the Cowboys to a 40-23 victory over Missouri State at home, and followed that with a 43-13 victory over Texas-San Antonio the following week at home in his first actual start. The Cowboys outgunned Texas Tech in an exciting Big 12 opener in Stillwater last week by a score of 45-35. Oklahoma State relied heavily on backups in the secondary due to several in-game injuries, most notably to starting cornerback Ashton Lampkin and starting safety Larry Stephens. The Cowboys surrendered a season-high 512 yards to the pass-happy Red Raiders, but were able to counter with 528 yards themselves. Garman accounted for several big plays; racking up 370 yards on just 17 completions, throwing for four touchdowns and running for another, helping to earn him Big 12 Player of the Week honors. The game was marred by an ugly 26 penalties, 10 coming at the Cowboys expense, which strangely enough included several offensive pass interference penalties.
The Cyclones have had a rather down year thus far. ISU opened the season with an ugly 34-14 loss to FCS powerhouse North Dakota State. They followed that with a narrow last-minute 32-28 loss at home to No. 20 Kansas State. The Cyclones received a glimmer of hope the following week with a 20-17 win over rival Iowa in a stout defensive battle. That glimmer was trampled on last week however, as the No. 7 Baylor Bears came to town and trounced the Cyclones 49-28 at home, and probably should’ve won by more. The Bears rolled up 601 total yards on the Cyclones’ overmatched defense. Cyclones quarterback Sam Richardson threw for 212 yards and two touchdowns, and ran for 99 yards and another score. Baylor led 35-7 at halftime, eventually sending the reserves in by the 4th quarter. Richardson connected with Tad Ecby for a 51 yard pass with under five minutes to go, allowing Iowa State to narrowly reach the 21 point spread for a push.
Key Matchup
The key storyline for each team so far this season has been at quarterback. OSU starter and duel-threat signal caller J.W. Walsh went down with a season-ending injury in the 2nd game of the season, paving the way for longtime backup Daxx Garman to finally have his chance. We saw immediately that Garman had an NFL-worthy deep ball almost immediately after he came in the game.
Garman hasn’t slowed down since. He has thrown for 685 yards in his last two starts, and is averaging 10.68 yards-per-attempt for the season, while averaging just over 16 completions per contest. He is currently ranked 12th nationally in pass efficiency. Garman prefers deep passes, as he certainly knows that he has the receivers that can go and get them. Seven different players have caught passes of 30+ yards from Garman in his short career this season. Speedy tailback Tyreek Hill even got in on the deep ball action in last week’s game against Texas Tech:
Though some have been quick to criticize Garman’s short and mid-range game, it’s safe so say that he might not need one if he keeps throwing bombs like he has thus far. His poise and confidence have grown with each game into his short career, and as long as he has the depth and talent at wide receiver, expect him to keep taking advantage of it.
Junior Iowa State quarterback Sam Richardson is certainly the opposite of Garman. Averaging just over 200 passing yards a game, Richardson opts for shorter passes, and often off of zone reads. He is also the Cyclones leading rusher, averaging 54.5 yards per game. Richardson was able to break out for a 47-yard touchdown scamper against Baylor last week:
Richardson has had to play this season without his favorite target and 2013 leading receiver Quenton Bundrage, who tore his ACL in the first game of the season. With a lacking receiving corps, and a mediocre lineup of running backs, Richardson has had to shoulder the load for new offensive coordinator Mark Mangino’s unit all on his own thus far this season.
Important Trends
The Cowboys are 14-4 SU in their last 18 games. Iowa State is 4-2 ATS in their last six games. The total has been OVER in 10 of Iowa State’s last 15 games, while going OVER in Oklahoma State’s last five games. OSU is 4-1 ATS in their last five games against the Cyclones. In their last three games against teams with losing records, OSU is 3-0 SU. Iowa State ranks 106th in total defense, allowing 463 yards per game. OSU ranks 33rd in passing offense, averaging 290.5 yards per game.
Prediction and Pick
Although the Cowboys defense took a beating in their last game against Texas Tech, don’t expect Iowa State to come close to that production. The OSU secondary should fare well against a very average passing attack. Daxx Garman will continue to air it out downfield against a Cyclone defense that has allowed seven passing plays of 40+ yards so far this season. Although it’s not likely that OSU tailback Desmond Roland will equal his 219 yards against ISU from last season, expect for him and Tyreek Hill to cause plenty of problems on the ground, setting up Garman’s deep throws. Cyclone quarterback Sam Richardson will have to earn every single yard against a Cowboy defense looking to turn things around. ISU will try to run the ball and keep the clock running, but it will result in lots of punts, giving the Cowboys plenty of possessions to light up the scoreboard.
Pick: Oklahoma State (-17.5) and the over of 65.
