NCAAF Picks: The Florida State Seminoles are a textbook example of an overlay team that is having a long championship hangover. The Seminoles somehow find ways to win despite sloppy play as a team that gets everyone’s best shot. The Miami Hurricanes are playing their best football of the season after a sluggish start that had many questioning the status of head coach Al Golden.
The Miami Hurricanes will host the Florida State Seminoles at Sun Life Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ABC starting at 8 PM ET. Florida State opened up as a 2.5-pooint favorite.
Losing Money but Winning Games
Florida State is 9-0 straight up but 2-7 against the spread and 4-5 under the total. The Seminoles are coming off a 34-20 home win over Virginia but failed to cover as 21 point favorites. The Seminoles have the metrics of a team that is ripe for an upset loss. FSU ranks 39th in the nation for total offense and 51st for total defense. QB Jameis Winston epitomizes the Seminoles style with an erratic 17-11 TD-INT ratio but the proven ability to come up clutch when the game is on the line.
Hurricane Warning?
Miami is 6-3 SU, 5-4 ATS, and 3-6 under the total. The Canes are riding a three game SU and ATS winning streak and have had two weeks to prepare for this matchup with FSU. Miami is coming off a 47-20 home payout over North Carolina. The Canes defense ranks 11th overall in the nation and 10th in the nation against the pass. Freshman QB Brad Kaaya is proving to be a quick study with a solid 20-9 TD-INT ratio.
Matchup and Pick
Florida State has suffered from a drop in value on the road recently with just five payouts in their last 15 away matchups. The Seminoles have gone over the total in 10 out of their last 12 road matchups.
Miami has shown increased value as a home team with 12 payouts in their last 17 home games. The Cans have gone over the total in six out of their last 10 home games.
Miami has had the better of their head to head series with Florida State. The Canes have paid out in 10 out of their last 16 games with Florida State including three of the most recent five meetings. The Canes and Seminoles have gone under the total in their last three meetings. Florida State has been at their best against the Canes at Miami however with six payouts in their last nine visits to Miami. Six of those nine games went under the total.
Miami in an outright upset and under the total is the call.
