NCAAF Picks: Inconsistency plagued Steve Sarkisian when he was the head coach of the Washington Huskies and that trait has followed him to his new gig with the USC Trojans. The Cal Bears are on the upswing with second year head coach Sonny Dykes but must eventually field something that resembles a competent defense to be considered a true Pac 12 title contender.
The USC Trojans will host the Cal Bears at LA Memorial Coliseum on Thursday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 9 PM ET. USC will be a solid favorite in this one.
Inconsistent but in the Money
USC is 6-3 straight up and 6-3 against the spread with a 4-5 mark under the total. The Trojans are coming off a bye week that followed a 44-17 payout at Washington State. USC ranks 104th in the nation for pass defense which could prove to be problematic against Cal. Quarterback Cody Kessler has a been a valuable asset with a 25-2 TD-INT ratio and a 70% completion rate. Javorius Allen has rushed for 1124 yards and 5.7 yards per carry.
Bears are Golden
Cal is 5-4 SU, 6-3 ATS, and 6-3 over the total. The Bears snapped a three game losing streak with a 45-31 win at Oregon State which was followed with a bye week. Cal ranks ninth in the nation for scoring offense but 125th for total defense. Quarterback Jared Goff has a 27-to-4 TD-INT ratio and 3119 yards passing.
Matchup and Pick
The Cal Bears have shown improved value on the road with five payouts in their last seven away matchups. Cal has gone over the total in four out of their last five away games. The Bears have morphed into a dangerous dog as well lately with five payouts in their last six games as a pup with four out of their last five games as a dog going over the total.
USC has paid out in seven out of their last 10 home games with 14 out of their last 20 home games going under the total. USC has struggled to maintain good betting value as a chalk however with an even split at 5-5 ATS when laying the lumber. USC has gone over the total in four out of their last seven games.
USC has dominated this head to head series with Cal as the Trojans have come away with the money in eight out of their last nine games with the Bears. USC has gone under the total in eight out of their last 10 games with the Bears. USC has paid out in five consecutive home games against Cal with four out of those five games going under the total.
Based on head-to-head we’ll call for USC and under the total.
