NCAAF Picks: The Ole Miss Rebels biggest win of the season was not their 23-17 home payout over Alabama but instead last week’s 35-20 win at Texas A&M in a game in which the experts predicted that they would come up flat and out of gas. The rebuilding Tennessee Volunteers are a program on the rise with relentless second year head coach Butch Jones but need more time to fortify their roster with the necessary depth required for success in the SEC.
The Rebels will host the Volunteers at Vaught Hemmingway Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN/ESPN2 starting at 7 PM ET. Ole Miss opened as a 17-point favorite.
More Volunteers Needed
Tennessee is 3-3 straight up, 3-3 against the spread, and 1-4 under the total as they will be pressed for the six wins needed for bowl eligibility. The Vols are coming off a 45-10 home win over 1-AA Chattanooga. The Vols have a solid defense that ranks 16th in the nation but their offense has been woefully inept against 1A competition and ranks 109th overall in the nation. The ground game has been a particular disappointment and ranks 112th.
Rebels with a Cause
Ole Miss is 6-0 SU, 5-0-1 ATS, and 1-5 under the total and tied for first place in the SEC West with the Mississippi State Bulldogs. Ole Miss ranks second nationally for scoring defense and their performance against a high octane Texas A&M team was particularly impressive as Ole Miss opened up a can with a 35-7 fourth quarter lead before calling off the dogs.
Matchup and Pick
Tennessee has struggled as a betting value on the road with just six payouts in their last 16 away games with eight out of their last 12 away games going over the total. Ole Miss on the other hand has improved significantly as a betting value at Vaught Hemmingway Stadium with 11 payouts in their last 15 home matchups as 10 out of their last 17 home games have gone over the total.
Ole Miss has come away with the money in four out of their last five meetings with Tennessee as the last two meetings have gone over the total. The Rebels have covered the spread in their last two home games against the Volunteers. Tennessee isn’t ready for this weight class as of yet. We’ll call for Ole Miss and over the total.
