NCAAF Picks: The Alabama Crimson Tide have taken their game up a significant notch with their best football of the season since head coach Nick Saban’s epic rant about fans expectations that have reached ridiculous proportions. LSU Tigers head coach Les Miles is again proving to be a master of player development with a roster that is perpetually picked clean by the NFL.
In the renewal of one of the most heated top shelf rivalries in all of sports the LSU Tigers will host the Alabama Crimson Tide at Tiger Stadium, AKA “Death Valley” on Saturday night with coverage on CBS starting at 8 PM ET. Alabama opened as a six point favorite.
A Tide of Crimson Ink
Alabama is 7-1 straight up but 2-6 against the spread with a 4-4 mark on totals. The Tide is coming off a bye week that followed a 34-20 win at Tennessee in which they failed to cover as 20 point chalks. Alabama ranks fourth in the nation for total defense and second for scoring defense. The Tide ranks 14th for total offense as first year coordinator Lane Kiffin has proven critics wrong. Kiffin has been instrumental in the development of QB Blake Sims. Sims has a 15-3 TD-INT ratio.
Miles of Improvement and Value
LSU is 7-2 SU, 7-2 ATS, and 4-5 under the total. The Tigers are coming off a 10-7 home payout over Ole Miss as 4 point dogs for their third consecutive win and payout. LSU ranks fourth in the nation for scoring defense. The offense remains a work in progress and ranks 65th overall but with signs of improvement.
Our Pick
Alabama has suffered from a serious drop in betting value on the road with just three payouts in their last 12 away matchups. The Tide has gone over the total in 14 out of their last 20 away matchups.
LSU has seen their betting value grow at a rapid rate in Death Valley with five payouts in their last six games at Tiger Stadium. The Tigers have gone under the total in five out of their last seven home games.
LSU has come away with the cash in three out of their last five meetings against Alabama with the last five games between LSU and Alabama failing to go over the total. The Tigers have covered the spread in two out of their last three home games against Alabama with none of those games going over the total.
We expect yet another tight affair with championship quality play and an emphasis on defense. We’ll call for LSU (+6) and under the total.
