NCAAF Picks: The UCLA Bruins were a trendy pick to win the national championship but their lack of a quality defense has ended those hopes and has decimated their betting value. The Arizona Wildcats are a program in the ascent under third year coach Rich Rodriguez and in control of their own destiny in the Pac 12 South Division.
The Bruins will host the Wildcats at the Rose Bowl on Saturday with coverage on ESPN starting at 10:30 PM ET. UCLA opened as a 4.5-point favorite.
Overlays Bruin
UCLA is 6-2 straight up, 1-7 against the spread and 3-4-1 under the total. The Bruins are coming off a near death experience in a 40-37 overtime win at Colorado in which they were 14 point overlays. UCLA ranks 21st in the nation for total offense but 88th for total defense and 89th for scoring defense.
Wisdom of Solomon
Arizona is 6-1 SU, 3-4 ATS, and 3-4 under the total. The Wildcats are coming off a 59-37 payout at Washington State in which the score was closer than the actual game. Arizona has a dynamic offense that ranks sixth overall in the nation with a passing attack that ranks eighth. The defense ranks 81st for points allowed but has been better than the numbers indicate as most of those points were allowed in garbage time situations. Quarterback Anu Solomon has a 63 percent completion rate with a 20-4 TD-INT ratio. Running backs Nick Wilson and Terris Jones-Grigsby are both averaging over 5.7 yards per carry.
Our Pick
Arizona has covered the spread in just seven out of their last 19 away games with six out of their last 11 away games going over the total.
UCLA has paid out in just two out of their last seven home games with seven out of their last 10 home games going over the total.
UCLA has paid out in three out of their last four meetings with Arizona as four out of the last six meetings between the Wildcats and Bruins have gone under the total. The Bruins have covered the spread in four out of their last five home games against Arizona with the last two games at the Rose Bowl between Arizona and UCLA going over the total. We’ll call for UCLA (-4.5) and over the total.
