NCAAF Picks: The Arizona State Sun Devils were written off for dead when starting QB Tayler Kelly went out of the lineup with a foot injury but backup Mike Bercovici has proven to be a quick study and has ASU in the thick of the Pac 12 South Division race. The defending Pac 12 champion Stanford Cardinal is using an elite defense to cover for an increasingly inept offense to stay in the Pac 12 North Division race.
The Sun Devils will host the Cardinal at Sun Devil Stadium on Saturday with coverage on ESPN starting at 10:30 PM ET. Stanford opened as a 3.5-point favorite.
Undertakers Delight
Stanford is coming off a 34-17 home payout against high flying Washington State as 16.5 point chalks to improve their record to 4-2 straight up, 3-3 against the spread, and 0-5 under the total. Stanford ranks second in the nation for total defense and first for scoring defense but has a sluggish offense that ranks 90th for scoring. It has been the perfect combination for those who like to bet games under the total.
Fresh off a Bye
Arizona State is 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 3-2 over the total after a 38-34 win at USC two weeks ago in which Bercovici hit Jaelen Strong on a 46-yard Hail Mary touchdown to win the game at the horn. Bercovici has kept the nation’s seventh ranked offense humming while the defense has been a weakness and ranks 102nd overall.
Matchup and Pick
This matchup offers a stark contrast in playing styles, strengths and weaknesses. Stanford has paid out in 14 out of their last 20 away games but has cooled of some as of late with a road mark of 3-5 ATS as 11 out of their last 14 away games have gone under the total. Arizona State has been a subpar betting value at home with just four payouts in their last 10 home games as five out of their last eight home games have gone under the total.
Arizona State has covered the spread in just four out of their last 14 meetings with Stanford and has come up empty in the last four meetings with the Cardinal as five out of the last seven meetings between the Sun Devils and Cardinal have gone under the total. Stanford crushed Arizona State 38-14 last year as a three point road dog in the Pac 12 championship game. As the saying goes, “defense wins championships.” We’ll call for Stanford and under the total in this one.
The last time Arizona State beat Stanford was 2008. The Sun Devils will have to show a lot of improvement this Saturday if they have any chance against Stanford. I think Stanford will win by 10.