The Southern Methodist Mustangs struggled last season. They want to be able to fix things up this season, but a season opener at Baylor is probably not going to be the way to do so.
SMU Mustangs @ Baylor Bears
Sunday, August 30th – 7:35 PM ET
Odds: Baylor -33
Why SMU Can Cover
They seem to respond to their tougher seasons under head coach June Jones. SMU went 1-11 in Jones’ first season back in 2008, and the next year, SMU went 8-5. SMU lost seven games in 2010, but the Mustangs showed some resilience by going 8-5 the next season and winning a bowl game. Last year, the Mustangs missed a bowl for the first time in the past five seasons, dropping to 5-7. You can bet that Jones will have the attention of his players and has tried to teach them lessons that might not have broken through a year ago. Losing can sometimes focus a team in the offseason and help it to return to the fundamentals and details that might have been neglected. SMU can fix up its mistakes, get back to doing what it does best (throwing the ball down the field), and challenge a Baylor defense that was very leaky last season, especially in the Fiesta Bowl, when it got destroyed by UCF in a game that was much more lopsided than the final score of 52-42. If SMU can strike quickly against Baylor’s defense and finish drives with touchdowns instead of having to settle for field goals, the Mustangs could plant seeds of doubt in the minds of the Bears, especially the Bears’ defensive players, and continue to excel in this game for the duration. It would be a surprise, but it could happen if the first 20 minutes are really strong.
Why Baylor Can Cover
They have the much better team, and they have the quarterback who is in position to make the Bears’ talent rise to the surface in this one. Bryce Petty was one of the best players in the country last season. He wasn’t a Heisman Trophy finalist, but he was almost at that level. Petty is a capable runner, but he’s even better as a passer. He gets the ball to his receivers on time and in space. He is able to make a wide range of throws. He’s able to find receivers on horizontal pass patterns and vertical ones. He’s able to find the receiver sitting down in the middle of the field, and he’s able to make the wide throw as well. Baylor has so many really good athletes, the part of both great recruiting and solid player development by head coach Art Briles and the rest of the Baylor coaching staff. If SMU can’t do anything to pressure Petty, its defense stands virtually no chance against the Baylor offense, and this game will become a rout.
Outlook
SMU won’t get to Petty, so this game will become a runaway for the Bears, as they try to defend their Big 12 title this season.
Pick: Baylor -33
