NCAAF Picks: Despite the metrics of a team that is no more than above average the USC Trojans still have a shot at the Pac 12 South Division title while showing a profit at the betting window. The UCLA Bruins have proven to lack the defense to stay in the national title race that they were touted for this year and have paid the price for that at the cashier’s cage. But UCLA has the offense to get past anyone that they face and they are also in the hunt for the Pac 12 South title.
The UCLA Bruins will host the USC Trojans at the Rose Bowl on Saturday with coverage on ABC starting at 8 PM ET. UCLA opened as a three point favorite.
Losing while Winning
UCLA is 8-2 straight up, 3-7 against the spread, and 4-5-1 under the total. UCLA is coming off a 44-30 payout at Washington that was followed with a bye week. QB Brett Hundley has a 158.0 QB rating with a 17-4 TD-INT ratio. Hundley is also the Bruins second leading ball carrier behind Paul Perkins, who has 1370 yards, 6.4 yards per carry, and eight TD’s. The problem for UCLA is a defense that ranks 79th in the nation both overall and for points allowed.
Men of Troy Lack Identifiable Strength
USC is 7-3 SU, 6-4 ATS, and 4-6 under the total. The Trojans are coming off a 38-30 win over Cal in which they failed to cover as 14 point home chalks. USC ranks 34th overall in the nation for total offense and 68th for total defense. Good but hardly great is this team’s look.
Our Pick
USC has improved as a betting value in road games with a mark of six payouts in their last nine away games. The Trojans have gone under the total in five out of their last six away games.
UCLA has seen an erosion of their betting value in home games with just three payouts in their last eight home games. The Bruins have gone over the total in 10 out of their last 15 home games.
UCLA has won and covered their last two meetings against USC. Last year the Bruins scored a 35-14 win at USC as the game went under the total of 52. The Bruins and Trojans have gone under the total in seven out of their last eight meetings. UCLA has come away with the money in four out of their last five home games with USC with four out of those five games going under the total.
Based on Hundley and head to head we like UCLA and under the total.
