NCAAF Picks: Just one week ago the BYU Cougars were being touted as the ultimate party crasher for 2014 and as a team that could sneak its way into the first ever four team playoff in college football history but those dreams are now broken. To add injury to insult, starting QB Taysom Hill broke his leg as the Cougars Cinderella season met midnight. After losing their first two games to Penn State and Mizzou the defending American Athletic Conference UCF Knights are back in the groove with two straight wins over non “Power Five” teams as they continue to struggle on offense without departed star QB Blake Bortles.
The Knights will host the Cougars on Thursday night at Bright House Networks Stadium with coverage on ESPN starting at 7:30 PM ET.
Winning Knights
The UCF Knights are 2-2 both straight up and against the spread with a 1-3 mark under the total. UCF is coming off a 17-12 payout at Houston as 2 point road dogs in their AAC opener. The UCF offense has been noticeably sluggish as it ranks 122nd overall in the nation but the defense has been decent to rank 33rd overall nationally. If the offense can get going the Knights will be a favorite to repeat as champs of the weak AAC.
A Hill to Climb
BYU is 4-1 SU, 2-3 ATS, and 3-2 over the total after last week’s 35-20 home loss to Utah State as 21 point chalks. Hill has a broken leg that will put him out indefinitely and backup Christian Stewart was horrible after coming off the bench against Utah State as he was an erratic 10-29 passing and tossed three interceptions. BYU had mediocre metrics even with Hill in the lineup and now ranks 53rd overall for total offense and 62nd for total defense.
Matchup and Pick
BYU has been a decent board value on the road with 12 payouts in their last 19 away games as just six out of their last 20 away games have gone over the total. UCF has paid out in eight out of their last 11 home games however with seven out of their last nine home games going under the total. The BYU QB situation is ugly and both offenses are struggling so we like this game under the total with UCF on the side.
