NCAAF Picks: The Boise State Broncos are good but no longer great and are methodically improving under first year head coach Bryan Harsin. The BYU Cougars have not recovered from the loss of QB Taysom Hill and are in the free fall of a three game losing streak.
The Boise State Broncos will host the BYU Cougars at Albertsons Stadium on Friday night with coverage on ESPN starting at 9 PM ET.
Falling Down the Hill
Hill was a top shelf Heisman Trophy candidate and his leg injury has damaged the entire team and its psyche. But BYU has additional problems beyond the loss of their quarterback as their defense is coming off an epic collapse last week in which the Cougars allowed 29 second half points in a 42-35 home loss to Nevada. BYU now stands at 4-3 straight up, 2-5 against the spread, and 5-2 over the total. The BYU defense ranks 120th in the nation against the pass and 65th for points allowed.
Broncos Buck Up Value
Boise State is 5-2 SU, 4-3 ATS, and 4-3 over the total after last week’s 37-27 home win over Fresno State in which they failed to cover as 17.5 point chalks. Boise State has improved to rank 23rd in the nation for total offense but the defense has been sluggish ranking 71st for points allowed. Harsin is a Boise State alumnus and understands the culture, potential, and limits of the program. The Broncos now face the additional challenge of not being a “Power Five” conference team which may harm future recruiting.
Matchup and Pick
BYU has covered the spread in just two out of their last seven away games with just two out of their last nine away games going over the total. Boise State once was one of the best values any sport on their famed blue carpet but no more. The Broncos have paid out in just five out of their last 14 home games with six out of their last eight home games going under the total.
BYU has covered the spread in their last three consecutive meetings with Boise State as all three of those games went under the total. We’ll call for BYU and under the total.
