NCAAF Picks: The Alabama Crimson Tide could very well be stepping into a dangerous trap this week against a much improved Arkansas team that has had two weeks to prepare after a heartbreaking 35-28 overtime loss that should have been a win over Texas A&M. Head coach Brett Bielema continues to search for his first ever SEC victory. Alabama must recover from a tough 23-17 loss at Ole Miss in which their vaunted defense blew a 17-10 lead with 5:29 remaining to play.
The Razorbacks will host the Crimson Tide on Saturday at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium with coverage on ESPN starting at 6 PM ET. Alabama opened as an eight point favorite.
Ride Rolled by Overlays
Alabama is 4-1 straight up but 1-4 against the spread with a 3-2 mark over the total as their name brand championship reputation with the betting public and ever improved competition in the SEC is driving down their board value. The Tide ranks third in the nation for total defense and third against the rush while ranking 10th for total offense.
Ground Hogs Closing In
Arkansas is 3-2 SU, 4-1 ATS, and 4-1 over the total as they rank seventh in the nation for rushing offense Bielema has taken a lot of heat for his old school smash mouth approach in this era of the spread offenses but he is looking smarter by the day as his contrary approach sets up Arkansas as the one team that offers a different look from the rest of their SEC rivals.
Matchup and Pick
Alabama has seen their board value drop recently on the road with just three payouts in their last nine away games as seven out of their last eight away games have gone over the total. Arkansas has covered the spread in just three out of their last eight home games with four out of their last six home games going over the total. Alabama has dominated this head to head series with five payouts in their last six games against Arkansas with six out of the last eight meetings between the Tide and Hogs going over the total including the last three consecutive matchups. The Tide has won and covered three out of their last four visits to Arkansas with three of those games going over the total. We’ll call for an Alabama bounceback in this one.
