NCAAF Picks: The Colorado Buffaloes head from the mountains to the west coast to take on the Golden Bears of Cal-Berkeley in a game that kicks off at 4:00pm ET. BetSDI has the Golden Bears as a 14 point favorite, with the Over/Under at 66.5.
Difference In Momentum
The Bears and Buffaloes are coming off two very different game results from the previous week. Cal (2-1) visited Arizona last Saturday, and despite leading by double digits for most of the game, somehow managed to allow 37 points in the 4th quarter and fell to the Wildcats on a Hail Mary pass with no time left, losing 49-45.
It was a demoralizing finish for Cal, to say the least. The Golden Bears had numerous chances to put the game away, yet allowed the Wildcats to crawl back against all odds. Cal’s secondary was abused by Arizona quarterback Anu Solomon, who had an absurd 73 pass attempts, completing 47 of them for 520 yards, five touchdowns, and two interceptions. Golden Bear quarterback Jared Goff had a solid game, going 18/30 for 380 yards, 3 touchdowns, and an interception. Cal running backs Daniel Losco and Khalfani Muhammad combined for 218 yards rushing, with three touchdowns. All of this wasn’t enough to stop a determined Wildcat team that had fate on their side that evening, along with a worn down Cal secondary.
The Colorado Buffaloes defeated a lackluster Hawaii team 21-12 at home last week to pull to an overall record of 2-2. Star receiver Nathan Spruce hauled in a school record 13 receptions, which included a 71-yard touchdown catch, for 172 yards. Quarterback Sefo Liufau was effective against a solid Hawaii pass defense, going 29/45 for 287 yards, two touchdowns, and two interceptions. The Buffs were rather ineffective at running the ball, compiling just 118 yards on 36 carries. The entire CU offense was shut out in the 2nd half. The Colorado defense held Hawaii to only field goals, the first time they’ve done that since 2010. The Buffs completely shut down the Rainbow Warriors passing game, allowing a meager 155 yards, and forcing 29 incompletions. Cornerback Tedric Thompson recorded his 2nd interception of the season when he picked off Hawaii quarterback Taylor Graham late in the 4th quarter to seal the win.
Young & Experienced Quarterback Matchup
The Golden Bears and Buffaloes like to rely on their passing games, ranking 14th and 34th respectively in yards per game. Cal Sophomore quarterback Jared Goff has been very reliable thus far, amassing 890 yards and 10 touchdowns, with just two interceptions. A starter since his freshman season, Goff prefers to stay in the pocket, usually throwing short passes. His touchdown output is up considerably this year, as he has developed more of a mid-range game, upping his yards-per-attempt to 10.35, up almost four yards per attempt from last season. Goff doesn’t seem to have a favorite target, instead opting to spread it around, as 11 players have at least a reception. No receiver has more than 10 receptions.
Colorado quarterback Sefo Liufau is also a sophomore in his second season of being a starter. Liufau took over the starting job six games in last season and did a decent job, with his best game coming in a win over Cal. Liufau was 23 of 36 for 364 yards, three touchdowns, and an interception in a 41-24 win at home. Liufau also prefers short passes, averaging just 6.54 yards per pass attempt. He has the luxury of having receivers such as Nathan Spruce and Shay Fields to throw to, the two of which having combined for 64 receptions, 719 yards, and nine touchdowns.
Crucial Numbers
Cal is 8-20 ATS in their last 28 games. The Buffs are 5-2 ATS in their last seven, which includes most of their roster dating back to last season. They are also 4-0 ATS in their last four conference games. The Buffs were favored by 8.5 last week against Hawaii, and won by nine. The total was 60, and was under by 27 points. Arizona was favored by 9.5 over Cal last week, and won by four. The total was 70.5, and over by 23.5. Cal is 1-5 SU in their last six home games. The total has gone OVER in seven of CU’s last nine games on the road. The total has gone OVER in six of Cal’s last nine games at home.
Prediction
Cal seems to be the better team thus far this season, and they have every reason to be 3-0 right now. The Buffs, aside from their own 2nd half meltdown against Colorado State, have been competitive in all of their games. Although Cal is among the nation’s leaders in airing it out, their defense ranks 121st overall in pass defense. Expect Liufau and Spruce to have a huge day against an overmatched secondary.
The Golden Bear offense, however, is more formidable than the one-dimensional Buffaloes. They are able to run the ball better than the Buffs, and this will allow the field to open up against a stingy Colorado secondary that ranks 29th in pass defense. Cal is sure to come out flat early after such a deflating loss from the week prior. Although Colorado will put up a solid fight, especially early on, expect Cal to eventually recover and pull out a close win at home, with their superior offensive firepower making up for a mediocre defense. Cal will get the win, but will not cover the spread.
Pick: Colorado (+14) and Over 66.5
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