NCAAF Picks: Can “Ground Hogs” Spring Trap on Georgia?

NCAAF Picks: One of the most frustrating and unpredictable teams in college football betting has been the Georgia Bulldogs. Just when they look like a national title contender they flop against an opponent that they should normally dominate which makes their matchup this week at Arkansas potentially perilous.  The Arkansas Razorbacks continue to work through a major culture change under second year head coach Brett Bielema of being a throwback power based team in this era of the spread offense as the Hogs continue to pound on the door for their first breakthrough win.

The Razorbacks will host the Bulldogs at Donald W. Reynolds Razorback Stadium on Saturday with coverage on the SEC Network starting at 4 PM ET.  Georgia opened as a three-point favorite.

Hogs on the Brink

Arkansas is 3-3 straight up, 5-1 against the spread, and 4-2 over the total after yet another close call loss, this time at home to Alabama, 14-13 as nine point dogs.  Arkansas outplayed and outgained Alabama 334-227 which is further proof of their progress under Bielema and that they are likely to ruin someone’s season with a signature win.  Arkansas ranks 11^th in the nation for rushing offense and that has kept their improved defense fresh and ranking an above average 51^st overall.

Dawgs Power Up

Georgia is 5-1 SU, 3-3 ATS, and 5-1 over the total after last week’s dominant 34-0 win at Missouri in which they excelled in all aspects of the game without suspended RB Todd Gurley.  UGA is the team to beat in the SEC East and ranks eighth in the nation for scoring offense and a much improved 11^th for total defense.

Our Pick

Arkansas has struggled to maintain good betting value at home with just six payouts in their last 17 games at Razorback Stadium as four out of their last six home games have gone over the total.   The Bulldogs have fared even worse against the line on the road however with just three payouts in their last 13 away games as five out of their last seven away games have gone over the total.

Arkansas has come away with the cash in three out of their last four games against Georgia with the last two meetings in this head to head series going over the total.  We’ll call for the Arkansas Razorbacks for a possible outright upset in this one.