NCAAF Picks: The Michigan Wolverines are reaching historic new lows for their once proud program that is the winningest in college football history, as their defense is beginning to crack under the strain of having to carry the team due to an inept offense that has been hamstrung by poor line play and inconsistent quarterbacking. The Penn State Nittany Lions have shown rapid improvement under first year head coach James Franklin as their defense has been consistent and has covered for an inconsistent offense and a drop in play by QB Christian Hackenberg.
The Wolverines will host the Nittany Lions at Michigan Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on ESPN2 starting at 7 PM ET. Penn State is listed as a surprising 1.5-point underdog.
Nits Return to Roots
Penn State is 4-1 straight up, 3-2 against the spread, and 2-3 under the total as they are coming off a bye week that followed a 29-6 upset home loss to resurgent Northwestern. Penn State ranks ninth in the nation for overall defense but Hackenberg has a 4-6 TD-INT ratio and has dropped from a 134 QB rating in 2013 to a 122.2 rating so far this season.
Maize Malaise and Blue
Michigan is 2-4 SU and ATS and 3-3 on totals after last week’s 26-24 loss at Rutgers in which they were outgained 476-336 with a defense that allowed 8-16 on third downs. The Wolverines rank 53rd for scoring defense and 104th for scoring offense in an ugly look that shows little evidence of improvement.
Matchup and Pick
Michigan has paid out in seven out of their last 12 home games although they have come away empty in three out of their four home games this season. Michigan has gone under the total in just four out of their last 13 games at the Big House. Penn State has been an ineffective road team however with just two payouts in their last eight away games as seven out of their last 11 away games have gone over the total.
Penn State has covered the spread in six out of their last eight meetings with Michigan as the Nittany Lions have come away with the cash in the last four consecutive meetings in this head to head series with three out of the last four meetings between the Wolverines and Lions going over the total. Penn State has paid out in three out of their last four visits to the Big House. We’ll call for Penn State (+1.5) to get the money in this one.
