NCAAF Picks: Kentucky and LSU meet in SEC East showdown

NCAAF Picks:   If you are looking for a quietly surprising betting value, the Kentucky Wildcats are among the most improved college football programs in the country. Second year head coach Mark Stoops is using his connections in the state of Ohio to form a new recruiting pipeline that is paying dividends on the field and big profits against the betting line.  The LSU Tigers have long had a strong recruiting pipeline with annual top five rated classes but the annual roster raids of the NFL have taken a severe toll on their experience and depth yet head coach Les Miles is keeping the team above water and paying out consistently at the cashier’s cage.

The Tigers will host the Wildcats at Tiger Stadium on Saturday night with coverage on SEC Network starting at 7:30 PM ET.

Miles to go on LSU Rebuild

LSU is 5-2 straight up, 5-2 against the spread, and 4-3 over the total after a hard fought 30-27 win at Florida.  As usual with a Les Miles team it is defense that is the bedrock foundation of the program and the Tigers rank 17^th in the nation for scoring defense.  LSU has severe quarterback problems however and ranks 95^th in passing.  Running backs Leonard Fournette and Kenny Hilliard are carrying the team as both average more than five yards per carry.

Mild-Cats No More

Kentucky is 5-1 SU, 5-1 ATS, and 4-2 over the total after a 48-14 home payout over Louisiana Monroe.  Kentucky has the numbers to back up their improvement as they rank 30^th in the nation for scoring offense and 15^th for scoring defense.  Quarterback Patrick Towles has been impressive with a 10-4 TD-INT ratio.

Our Pick

Kentucky has seen gradual improvement on their road game betting value with three payouts in their last five away matchups.  LSU has seen their value erode at home with just six payouts in their last 14 games at Tiger Stadium with three out of their last five home games going under the total.

Kentucky has been a surprisingly good board value against LSU with six payouts in their last eight meetings with the Tigers as four out of the last six meetings in this head to head series have gone under the total.  This is the year UK can get the outright upset.  Kentucky and under is our call.